Analysis of Green Plains Stock Price Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Ethanol Price Decline: Domestic ethanol production has surged to a multi-month high, leading to an oversupply that has caused the North American Ethanol Price Index to drop, reflecting weaker buying activity and negatively impacting producer revenues.
- Stock Price Volatility: Green Plains shares fell 3% in the afternoon session but later rebounded to $15.77, down 0.5% from the previous close, indicating the market's sensitivity to the news.
- Market Reaction Analysis: The stock has experienced over 50 moves greater than 5% in the past year, suggesting that while the market considers this news significant, it does not fundamentally alter perceptions of the company's business.
- Long-term Investment Returns: Despite a 53.4% increase year-to-date, the current share price of $15.77 remains 13.6% below the 52-week high of $18.25, and investors who bought $1,000 worth of shares five years ago would now see only $470.73 in value.
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Analyst Views on GPRE
Wall Street analysts forecast GPRE stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 15.800
Low
9.00
Averages
11.50
High
15.00
Current: 15.800
Low
9.00
Averages
11.50
High
15.00
About GPRE
Green Plains Inc. is a renewable fuel and agricultural technology company focused on producing low-cost, low-Carbon Intensity (CI) ethanol and related co-products, including high protein feeds and corn oil from locally sourced corn. The Company operates through two segments: ethanol production and agribusiness and energy services. Its ethanol production segment includes the production, storage and transportation of ethanol, distiller's grains, Ultra-High Protein and renewable corn oil at nine bio refineries in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. The agribusiness and energy services segment includes grain procurement, storage and commodity marketing. It markets its ethanol through a third party and sells and distributes its ethanol plant co-products, including distiller's grains and corn oil. The Company also buys and sells natural gas and other commodities in various markets. It processes approximately 287 million bushels of corn annually.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysis of Green Plains Stock Price Decline
- Ethanol Price Decline: Domestic ethanol production has surged to a multi-month high, leading to an oversupply that has caused the North American Ethanol Price Index to drop, reflecting weaker buying activity and negatively impacting producer revenues.
- Stock Price Volatility: Green Plains shares fell 3% in the afternoon session but later rebounded to $15.77, down 0.5% from the previous close, indicating the market's sensitivity to the news.
- Market Reaction Analysis: The stock has experienced over 50 moves greater than 5% in the past year, suggesting that while the market considers this news significant, it does not fundamentally alter perceptions of the company's business.
- Long-term Investment Returns: Despite a 53.4% increase year-to-date, the current share price of $15.77 remains 13.6% below the 52-week high of $18.25, and investors who bought $1,000 worth of shares five years ago would now see only $470.73 in value.
See More
Green Plains Q1 2026 Earnings Highlights
- Earnings Beat: Green Plains reported a Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.42, exceeding expectations by $0.36, indicating strong profitability despite revenue challenges.
- Revenue Decline: The company generated $445.8M in revenue for the quarter, a 25.9% year-over-year decrease, missing expectations by $19.7M, reflecting market challenges and demand fluctuations.
- Adjusted EBITDA Performance: Adjusted EBITDA reached $71.5M, including $16.3M from the base business and $55.2M in production tax credit value, showcasing effective cost control and tax optimization strategies.
- Operational Efficiency Improvement: The eight operating ethanol plants achieved a robust 97% utilization rate this quarter, while lowering selling, general, and administrative expenses to $19.5M, demonstrating ongoing improvements in operational management.
See More
Green Plains Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 7
- Earnings Announcement Date: Green Plains (GPRE) is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 7 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.12, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 110.5%, indicating potential improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: Despite the rise in EPS expectations, the consensus revenue estimate stands at $465.5 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 22.6%, highlighting challenges in revenue growth that could impact investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, GPRE has not met EPS or revenue estimates at all, indicating a level of uncertainty in the company's financial performance, which may lead to a cautious market outlook regarding its future results.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced three upward revisions with no downward adjustments, suggesting a growing confidence among analysts regarding the company's future profitability.
See More
GREEN PLAINS INC: SECOND REVOLVER AMENDMENT LOWERS REVOLVER FACILITY COMMITMENT FROM $350 MILLION TO $300 MILLION
- Facility Size Reduction: The Green Plains Inc. has reduced the size of its second revolver amendment facility commitment from $350 million to $300 million.
- Financial Implications: This reduction may indicate a strategic shift in investment or operational focus for the company.
See More
GREEN PLAINS INC: SECOND REVOLVER AMENDMENT PUSHES BACK TERMINATION DATE OF REVOLVER FACILITY TO SEPTEMBER 25, 2027 FROM MARCH 25, 2027
Amendment Overview: The Green Plains Inc. has announced a second amendment to extend the termination date of its revolver facility.
New Termination Date: The termination date has been moved from March 25, 2027, to September 25, 2027.
See More
U.S.-Iran Conflict De-escalation Leads to Oil Price Drop
- Oil Price Drop Impact: Following President Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could wind down military actions against Iran, oil prices fell approximately 2%, trading below $101 per barrel, which weakened support for the energy sector and led to declines in related stocks.
- Market Overreaction: Stocks such as Magnolia Oil & Gas, EQT, and Helmerich & Payne saw declines of 3.1%, 3.1%, and 3.2% respectively, indicating that the market may be overreacting to the news, potentially creating buying opportunities for high-quality stocks.
- Helmerich & Payne Volatility Analysis: Helmerich & Payne has experienced 23 moves greater than 5% in the past year, and while today's drop suggests market sensitivity to the news, it is not expected to fundamentally alter perceptions of the business, with shares up 15.8% year-to-date and nearing a 52-week high.
- Investment Return Overview: An investment of $1,000 in Helmerich & Payne five years ago would now be worth $1,219, demonstrating the company's long-term investment potential despite short-term market fluctuations.
See More
Analysis of Green Plains Stock Price Decline
- Ethanol Price Decline: Domestic ethanol production has surged to a multi-month high, leading to an oversupply that has caused the North American Ethanol Price Index to drop, reflecting weaker buying activity and negatively impacting producer revenues.
- Stock Price Volatility: Green Plains shares fell 3% in the afternoon session but later rebounded to $15.77, down 0.5% from the previous close, indicating the market's sensitivity to the news.
- Market Reaction Analysis: The stock has experienced over 50 moves greater than 5% in the past year, suggesting that while the market considers this news significant, it does not fundamentally alter perceptions of the company's business.
- Long-term Investment Returns: Despite a 53.4% increase year-to-date, the current share price of $15.77 remains 13.6% below the 52-week high of $18.25, and investors who bought $1,000 worth of shares five years ago would now see only $470.73 in value.
See More
Green Plains Q1 2026 Earnings Highlights
- Earnings Beat: Green Plains reported a Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.42, exceeding expectations by $0.36, indicating strong profitability despite revenue challenges.
- Revenue Decline: The company generated $445.8M in revenue for the quarter, a 25.9% year-over-year decrease, missing expectations by $19.7M, reflecting market challenges and demand fluctuations.
- Adjusted EBITDA Performance: Adjusted EBITDA reached $71.5M, including $16.3M from the base business and $55.2M in production tax credit value, showcasing effective cost control and tax optimization strategies.
- Operational Efficiency Improvement: The eight operating ethanol plants achieved a robust 97% utilization rate this quarter, while lowering selling, general, and administrative expenses to $19.5M, demonstrating ongoing improvements in operational management.
See More
Green Plains Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 7
- Earnings Announcement Date: Green Plains (GPRE) is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 7 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.12, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 110.5%, indicating potential improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: Despite the rise in EPS expectations, the consensus revenue estimate stands at $465.5 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 22.6%, highlighting challenges in revenue growth that could impact investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, GPRE has not met EPS or revenue estimates at all, indicating a level of uncertainty in the company's financial performance, which may lead to a cautious market outlook regarding its future results.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced three upward revisions with no downward adjustments, suggesting a growing confidence among analysts regarding the company's future profitability.
See More
GREEN PLAINS INC: SECOND REVOLVER AMENDMENT LOWERS REVOLVER FACILITY COMMITMENT FROM $350 MILLION TO $300 MILLION
- Facility Size Reduction: The Green Plains Inc. has reduced the size of its second revolver amendment facility commitment from $350 million to $300 million.
- Financial Implications: This reduction may indicate a strategic shift in investment or operational focus for the company.
See More
GREEN PLAINS INC: SECOND REVOLVER AMENDMENT PUSHES BACK TERMINATION DATE OF REVOLVER FACILITY TO SEPTEMBER 25, 2027 FROM MARCH 25, 2027
Amendment Overview: The Green Plains Inc. has announced a second amendment to extend the termination date of its revolver facility.
New Termination Date: The termination date has been moved from March 25, 2027, to September 25, 2027.
See More
U.S.-Iran Conflict De-escalation Leads to Oil Price Drop
- Oil Price Drop Impact: Following President Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could wind down military actions against Iran, oil prices fell approximately 2%, trading below $101 per barrel, which weakened support for the energy sector and led to declines in related stocks.
- Market Overreaction: Stocks such as Magnolia Oil & Gas, EQT, and Helmerich & Payne saw declines of 3.1%, 3.1%, and 3.2% respectively, indicating that the market may be overreacting to the news, potentially creating buying opportunities for high-quality stocks.
- Helmerich & Payne Volatility Analysis: Helmerich & Payne has experienced 23 moves greater than 5% in the past year, and while today's drop suggests market sensitivity to the news, it is not expected to fundamentally alter perceptions of the business, with shares up 15.8% year-to-date and nearing a 52-week high.
- Investment Return Overview: An investment of $1,000 in Helmerich & Payne five years ago would now be worth $1,219, demonstrating the company's long-term investment potential despite short-term market fluctuations.
See More
