BigBear.ai's Share Count Increase Raises Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Share Count Surge: BigBear.ai has increased its outstanding shares from 46 million to over 477 million in the past five years, a tenfold increase primarily used for acquisitions and executive compensation, raising shareholder concerns about future dilution.
- Shareholder Vote Outcome: At the recent annual meeting, shareholders approved a proposal to double the share authorization from 500 million to 1 billion with 89% support, providing the company with more flexibility but potentially leading to further dilution.
- Financial Woes: With a current share price of $3.53, BigBear.ai has only $81 million in shares available, and even with $100.7 million in cash, it falls short of the $250 million needed for recent acquisitions, indicating a tight financial situation.
- Lack of Strategic Clarity: While the new share authorization may facilitate strategic acquisitions, the lack of significant performance improvement from the tenfold share increase over five years and the absence of a coherent business strategy from management leave investors cautious about the company's future prospects.
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Analyst Views on BBAI
Wall Street analysts forecast BBAI stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 3.580
Low
6.00
Averages
6.00
High
6.00
Current: 3.580
Low
6.00
Averages
6.00
High
6.00
About BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialized provider of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The Company provides decision intelligence solutions for supply chains and logistics, enterprise operations, manned-unmanned teaming in autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. Its solutions include AI orchestration and sensor function, digital identity management, computer vision, cybersecurity, predictive intelligence, modeling & simulation, enterprise automation and professional services. It offers Trueface, which performs one-to-many (1:N) facial matches with real-time photos, delivering identity verification. It also offers veriScan, which captures and transmits real-time photos into a biometric matching service supporting access control and biometric boarding/bag tags. The Company serves homeland & border security, defense, intelligence, manufacturing & suppy chain, travel and trade industries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
BigBear.ai Shareholders Approve Share Increase
- Share Increase Request: BigBear.ai's recent annual meeting resulted in an 89% shareholder approval to increase the authorized shares from 500 million to 1 billion, indicating urgent funding needs for the company.
- Dilution Risk: While the increased share authorization provides flexibility, any further share issuance will dilute existing shareholders, particularly concerning as the stock has already fallen over 60% since its SPAC merger in 2021.
- Deteriorating Financials: BigBear.ai's net losses have widened, with cash burn increasing, and revenue growth of only 13.5% starkly contrasts with Palantir's significant growth, highlighting the company's competitive disadvantages.
- Strategic Acquisition Potential: The new share authorization may be used for strategic acquisitions to expand market reach and enhance product offerings, but the lack of a clear business strategy raises investor concerns about future growth.
See More
BigBear.ai's Share Count Increase Raises Concerns
- Share Count Surge: BigBear.ai has increased its outstanding shares from 46 million to over 477 million in the past five years, a tenfold increase primarily used for acquisitions and executive compensation, raising shareholder concerns about future dilution.
- Shareholder Vote Outcome: At the recent annual meeting, shareholders approved a proposal to double the share authorization from 500 million to 1 billion with 89% support, providing the company with more flexibility but potentially leading to further dilution.
- Financial Woes: With a current share price of $3.53, BigBear.ai has only $81 million in shares available, and even with $100.7 million in cash, it falls short of the $250 million needed for recent acquisitions, indicating a tight financial situation.
- Lack of Strategic Clarity: While the new share authorization may facilitate strategic acquisitions, the lack of significant performance improvement from the tenfold share increase over five years and the absence of a coherent business strategy from management leave investors cautious about the company's future prospects.
See More
Congress Members Disclose SpaceX Stock Purchases Post-IPO
- Congressional Trading Disclosure: Representatives Dan Meuser and Gil Cisneros disclosed stock purchases in SpaceX following its IPO, with Meuser's dependent child buying between $15,001 and $50,000 on June 15, and Cisneros purchasing between $1,001 and $15,000 on June 18, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects.
- IPO Market Response: SpaceX went public on June 12 with a market cap exceeding $2 trillion, marking the largest IPO in history, opening at $150 and quickly pushing its valuation past $2 trillion, reflecting strong market demand for Musk's ventures and artificial intelligence initiatives.
- Political Sensitivity: The trades are politically sensitive due to the members' committee assignments, with Meuser serving on the Financial Services Committee overseeing securities and exchanges, while Cisneros is on the Armed Services Committee, which oversees the Defense Department, a major SpaceX customer.
- Future Trading Expectations: More disclosures from Congress members are anticipated in the coming weeks, with ethics watchdogs suggesting this may only be the tip of the iceberg, as many lawmakers are likely to have engaged in trading related to SpaceX's IPO, highlighting ongoing interest in tech company listings.
See More
BigBear.ai Stock Down 37% Yet Promising Outlook Ahead
- Stock Performance Decline: BigBear.ai's stock has dropped 37% in 2026 despite rapid growth in demand for its generative AI solutions, reflecting market concerns over its valuation.
- Financial Recovery: After a 19% revenue decline to $127.7 million in 2025, the company reported only a 1% drop to $34.4 million in Q1 2026, indicating potential for recovery in growth.
- Acquisition-Driven Growth: The $250 million acquisition of Ask Sage in December 2025 is expected to enhance BigBear.ai's capabilities in defense and intelligence, boosting gross margins from 25.76% to 34%.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management maintains a revenue forecast of $135 million to $165 million for 2026, implying a 17% growth at the midpoint, although analysts predict a slowdown to mid-single digits in 2027.
See More
BigBear.ai Forecasts Financial Improvement in 2026
- Acquisition-Driven Growth: BigBear.ai's acquisition of Ask Sage for $250 million enhances its capabilities in defense and intelligence, with projected revenue for 2026 ranging from $135 million to $165 million, indicating a 17% growth from last year.
- Revenue Recovery: Despite a 19% revenue decline in 2025 to $127.7 million, the company only saw a 1% drop in Q1 2026 to $34.4 million, suggesting signs of recovery in the new fiscal year.
- Margin Improvement: Thanks to the contribution from Ask Sage's higher-margin products, BigBear.ai's gross margin increased by nearly 13 percentage points to 34% in Q1 2026, which will help enhance overall profitability.
- Valuation Pressure: With a current price-to-sales ratio of 12, significantly above the Nasdaq Composite's 5.4, analysts predict revenue growth may slow to mid-single digits in 2027, indicating that high valuation could continue to weigh on the stock price.
See More
AI Market Competition: Comparing BigBear.ai and SoundHound AI
- Market Position of BigBear.ai: BigBear.ai focuses on providing decision intelligence and predictive analytics for defense and intelligence sectors, reporting $127.7 million in revenue for 2025, a 19.3% decline, highlighting its heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts and the need for new growth avenues to tackle market challenges.
- Growth Potential of SoundHound AI: SoundHound AI achieved approximately $168.9 million in revenue in 2025, up 99.4% year-over-year, and plans to acquire LivePerson for $100 million, further expanding its market presence in automotive and restaurant sectors, showcasing its robust commercial expansion capabilities.
- Financial Health Comparison: BigBear.ai has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2 and a current ratio of 1.8, indicating reasonable short-term debt coverage, but with negative free cash flow of $42.5 million, reflecting financial pressure; in contrast, SoundHound AI's current ratio is 4.6, indicating strong liquidity despite a negative free cash flow of $99 million.
- Risks and Challenges: BigBear.ai faces legal and financial reporting risks with a customer concentration of 51%, while SoundHound AI must navigate acquisition integration challenges and intense competition from large tech firms, with profitability improvements expected to take time.
See More
BigBear.ai Shareholders Approve Share Increase
- Share Increase Request: BigBear.ai's recent annual meeting resulted in an 89% shareholder approval to increase the authorized shares from 500 million to 1 billion, indicating urgent funding needs for the company.
- Dilution Risk: While the increased share authorization provides flexibility, any further share issuance will dilute existing shareholders, particularly concerning as the stock has already fallen over 60% since its SPAC merger in 2021.
- Deteriorating Financials: BigBear.ai's net losses have widened, with cash burn increasing, and revenue growth of only 13.5% starkly contrasts with Palantir's significant growth, highlighting the company's competitive disadvantages.
- Strategic Acquisition Potential: The new share authorization may be used for strategic acquisitions to expand market reach and enhance product offerings, but the lack of a clear business strategy raises investor concerns about future growth.
See More
BigBear.ai's Share Count Increase Raises Concerns
- Share Count Surge: BigBear.ai has increased its outstanding shares from 46 million to over 477 million in the past five years, a tenfold increase primarily used for acquisitions and executive compensation, raising shareholder concerns about future dilution.
- Shareholder Vote Outcome: At the recent annual meeting, shareholders approved a proposal to double the share authorization from 500 million to 1 billion with 89% support, providing the company with more flexibility but potentially leading to further dilution.
- Financial Woes: With a current share price of $3.53, BigBear.ai has only $81 million in shares available, and even with $100.7 million in cash, it falls short of the $250 million needed for recent acquisitions, indicating a tight financial situation.
- Lack of Strategic Clarity: While the new share authorization may facilitate strategic acquisitions, the lack of significant performance improvement from the tenfold share increase over five years and the absence of a coherent business strategy from management leave investors cautious about the company's future prospects.
See More
Congress Members Disclose SpaceX Stock Purchases Post-IPO
- Congressional Trading Disclosure: Representatives Dan Meuser and Gil Cisneros disclosed stock purchases in SpaceX following its IPO, with Meuser's dependent child buying between $15,001 and $50,000 on June 15, and Cisneros purchasing between $1,001 and $15,000 on June 18, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects.
- IPO Market Response: SpaceX went public on June 12 with a market cap exceeding $2 trillion, marking the largest IPO in history, opening at $150 and quickly pushing its valuation past $2 trillion, reflecting strong market demand for Musk's ventures and artificial intelligence initiatives.
- Political Sensitivity: The trades are politically sensitive due to the members' committee assignments, with Meuser serving on the Financial Services Committee overseeing securities and exchanges, while Cisneros is on the Armed Services Committee, which oversees the Defense Department, a major SpaceX customer.
- Future Trading Expectations: More disclosures from Congress members are anticipated in the coming weeks, with ethics watchdogs suggesting this may only be the tip of the iceberg, as many lawmakers are likely to have engaged in trading related to SpaceX's IPO, highlighting ongoing interest in tech company listings.
See More
BigBear.ai Stock Down 37% Yet Promising Outlook Ahead
- Stock Performance Decline: BigBear.ai's stock has dropped 37% in 2026 despite rapid growth in demand for its generative AI solutions, reflecting market concerns over its valuation.
- Financial Recovery: After a 19% revenue decline to $127.7 million in 2025, the company reported only a 1% drop to $34.4 million in Q1 2026, indicating potential for recovery in growth.
- Acquisition-Driven Growth: The $250 million acquisition of Ask Sage in December 2025 is expected to enhance BigBear.ai's capabilities in defense and intelligence, boosting gross margins from 25.76% to 34%.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management maintains a revenue forecast of $135 million to $165 million for 2026, implying a 17% growth at the midpoint, although analysts predict a slowdown to mid-single digits in 2027.
See More
BigBear.ai Forecasts Financial Improvement in 2026
- Acquisition-Driven Growth: BigBear.ai's acquisition of Ask Sage for $250 million enhances its capabilities in defense and intelligence, with projected revenue for 2026 ranging from $135 million to $165 million, indicating a 17% growth from last year.
- Revenue Recovery: Despite a 19% revenue decline in 2025 to $127.7 million, the company only saw a 1% drop in Q1 2026 to $34.4 million, suggesting signs of recovery in the new fiscal year.
- Margin Improvement: Thanks to the contribution from Ask Sage's higher-margin products, BigBear.ai's gross margin increased by nearly 13 percentage points to 34% in Q1 2026, which will help enhance overall profitability.
- Valuation Pressure: With a current price-to-sales ratio of 12, significantly above the Nasdaq Composite's 5.4, analysts predict revenue growth may slow to mid-single digits in 2027, indicating that high valuation could continue to weigh on the stock price.
See More
AI Market Competition: Comparing BigBear.ai and SoundHound AI
- Market Position of BigBear.ai: BigBear.ai focuses on providing decision intelligence and predictive analytics for defense and intelligence sectors, reporting $127.7 million in revenue for 2025, a 19.3% decline, highlighting its heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts and the need for new growth avenues to tackle market challenges.
- Growth Potential of SoundHound AI: SoundHound AI achieved approximately $168.9 million in revenue in 2025, up 99.4% year-over-year, and plans to acquire LivePerson for $100 million, further expanding its market presence in automotive and restaurant sectors, showcasing its robust commercial expansion capabilities.
- Financial Health Comparison: BigBear.ai has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2 and a current ratio of 1.8, indicating reasonable short-term debt coverage, but with negative free cash flow of $42.5 million, reflecting financial pressure; in contrast, SoundHound AI's current ratio is 4.6, indicating strong liquidity despite a negative free cash flow of $99 million.
- Risks and Challenges: BigBear.ai faces legal and financial reporting risks with a customer concentration of 51%, while SoundHound AI must navigate acquisition integration challenges and intense competition from large tech firms, with profitability improvements expected to take time.
See More
