Shell Projects Flat LNG Demand in 2026 Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 30 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Demand Forecast: Shell anticipates that LNG demand will remain flat in 2026 compared to last year, primarily due to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, although growth is expected to resume in 2027 and increase by 65% by 2050.
- Supply Disruption Impact: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected approximately 20% of global LNG flows, with Iranian attacks on outbound vessels leading to a sharp decline in LNG traffic, and damage to Qatar's LNG infrastructure could knock out 17% of its capacity for up to five years.
- Investment Opportunities: Shell is spearheading global LNG capacity expansion, participating in Qatar's North Field East and North Field South expansion projects, and considering approval for an expansion of the LNG Canada terminal by the end of this year, underscoring its leadership in the LNG market.
- Market Demand: Despite flat demand this year, Shell projects that global LNG demand will reach 700 million tonnes by 2050, driven mainly by emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia, indicating significant future investment potential in the LNG sector.
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Analyst Views on SHEL
Wall Street analysts forecast SHEL stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 78.140
Low
41.75
Averages
74.27
High
91.00
Current: 78.140
Low
41.75
Averages
74.27
High
91.00
About SHEL
Shell plc is an international energy company engaged in the principal aspects of the energy and petrochemical industries. The Company's segments include Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, Renewables and Energy Solutions, and Corporate. The Integrated Gas segment includes liquefied natural gas (LNG), conversion of natural gas into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products. It includes natural gas and liquids exploration and extraction, and the operation of the upstream and midstream infrastructure. The Upstream segment includes exploration and extraction of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. It also markets and transports oil and gas and operates the infrastructure necessary to deliver them to the market. The Marketing segment comprises the Mobility, Lubricants, and Sectors & Decarbonization businesses. The Chemicals and Products segment include chemical manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Chemicals Margin Changes: The indicative chemicals margin is projected to rise from $139/tonne in Q1 to $240/tonne in Q2, suggesting improved market conditions that could enhance profit margins and strengthen the company's competitive position.
- Overall Financial Performance Outlook: Shell Group's cash flow forecast indicates a tax-paid cash flow of $2.6-3.4 billion, and despite challenges from commodity price volatility, the company is expected to maintain stable financial performance, reflecting resilience in uncertain market conditions.
See More
