Vistra Energy's Stock Decline: Analysis of Causes
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Stock Performance: Vistra (VST) has seen a decline of approximately 6% year-to-date and nearly 20% over the past 12 months, reflecting market concerns about its growth prospects amid rising oil prices due to Middle East conflicts.
- Market Challenges: Proposed new rules by PJM Interconnection to cap electricity capacity prices have pressured Vistra's profitability, compounded by the company's decision to shut down a significant portion of its Moss Landing battery storage facility, which faced multiple fires.
- Long-Term Investment Potential: Despite regulatory challenges and outages, Vistra maintains crucial data center partnerships with Meta and Amazon, with analysts projecting revenue and adjusted EBITDA CAGRs of 15% and 16% from 2025 to 2028, indicating solid long-term growth prospects.
- Valuation Appeal: With an enterprise value of $70.7 billion, Vistra's stock trades at just three times this year's revenue and ten times this year's adjusted EBITDA, making it a compelling buy despite shedding its
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy VST?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on VST
Wall Street analysts forecast VST stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 157.220
Low
217.00
Averages
240.09
High
287.00
Current: 157.220
Low
217.00
Averages
240.09
High
287.00
About VST
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company that provides essential resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. It operates a reliable power generation fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities while taking an innovative, customer-centric approach to its retail business. Its segments include Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The Retail segment is engaged in retail sales of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers. The Texas and East segments are engaged in electricity generation, wholesale energy sales and purchases, commodity risk management activities, fuel procurement, and logistics management. The West segment represents results from the CAISO market, including its battery ESS projects at its Moss Landing power plant site. The Asset Closure segment is engaged in the decommissioning and reclamation of retired plants and mines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Vistra to Report Q2 2026 Financial Results on August 7
- Earnings Call Schedule: Vistra plans to report its Q2 2026 financial and operational results on August 7, 2026, via a live conference call and webcast starting at 10 a.m. ET, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Webcast Access: Investors can access the live webcast through the 'Investor Relations' section of Vistra's website, indicating the company's efforts in digital communication aimed at enhancing investor engagement and information accessibility.
- Conference Call Registration: Participants must register in advance to receive a dial-in number, ensuring smooth proceedings and reflecting the company's focus on participant experience, thereby enhancing investor interaction.
- Replay Availability: A replay of the call will be available on Vistra's website for one year post-event, demonstrating the company's commitment to information transparency and allowing investors who could not attend live to access key insights.
See More
Vistra to Report Q2 2026 Financial Results on August 7
- Earnings Call Schedule: Vistra plans to report its Q2 2026 financial and operational results on August 7, 2026, via a live conference call and webcast starting at 10 a.m. ET, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Webcast Access: Investors can access the live webcast through the 'Investor Relations' section of Vistra's website, indicating the company's efforts in digital communication aimed at enhancing interaction and information sharing with stakeholders.
- Conference Call Registration: Participants must register in advance to receive a dial-in number, ensuring a smooth meeting process and demonstrating the company's focus on participant experience, thereby enhancing the professionalism of the call.
- Replay Availability: The webcast will be available for replay on Vistra's website for one year post-call, allowing investors who cannot attend live to review the information, further enhancing accessibility and the company's accountability to its investors.
See More
Vistra Stock Drops 30%, Presents Buying Opportunity
- Stock Price Analysis: Vistra's stock has dropped 30% from its all-time high of $217.02, currently trading around $150, reflecting market concerns over its growth potential, particularly due to new rules capping electricity capacity prices.
- Market Performance Comparison: While energy stocks have rallied this year due to Middle East conflicts and surging AI market demand, Vistra has declined approximately 6% year-to-date and nearly 20% over the past 12 months, indicating its competitive disadvantages.
- Financial Outlook: Analysts expect Vistra's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 15% and 16% from 2025 to 2028, respectively, despite its current enterprise value of $70.7 billion and a low valuation of three times revenue, suggesting significant undervaluation potential.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Vistra has repurchased 30% of its shares over the past five years, and although its forward yield is only 0.6%, a low payout ratio of 15% provides ample room for future dividend increases, indicating a proactive approach to shareholder returns.
See More
Vistra Energy's Stock Decline: Analysis of Causes
- Stock Performance: Vistra (VST) has seen a decline of approximately 6% year-to-date and nearly 20% over the past 12 months, reflecting market concerns about its growth prospects amid rising oil prices due to Middle East conflicts.
- Market Challenges: Proposed new rules by PJM Interconnection to cap electricity capacity prices have pressured Vistra's profitability, compounded by the company's decision to shut down a significant portion of its Moss Landing battery storage facility, which faced multiple fires.
- Long-Term Investment Potential: Despite regulatory challenges and outages, Vistra maintains crucial data center partnerships with Meta and Amazon, with analysts projecting revenue and adjusted EBITDA CAGRs of 15% and 16% from 2025 to 2028, indicating solid long-term growth prospects.
- Valuation Appeal: With an enterprise value of $70.7 billion, Vistra's stock trades at just three times this year's revenue and ten times this year's adjusted EBITDA, making it a compelling buy despite shedding its
See More
Walmart and Vistra Options Trading Activity Surges
- Walmart Options Volume: Today, Walmart's options volume reached 182,812 contracts, equivalent to approximately 18.3 million shares, indicating a trading activity level that is 75.2% of its average daily volume over the past month, suggesting strong market interest in its future performance.
- High Put Option Activity: Among Walmart's options, the $110 strike put option stands out with 20,633 contracts traded today, representing about 2.1 million shares, indicating an increased expectation among investors for a potential decline in stock price.
- Vistra Options Trading: Concurrently, Vistra's options volume is at 25,100 contracts, approximately 2.5 million shares, accounting for 57.1% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, reflecting a rising market interest in the company as well.
- Active Call Options: For Vistra, the $190 strike call option has seen 5,050 contracts traded today, representing around 505,000 shares, suggesting growing investor confidence in the potential for future stock price increases.
See More
Vistra Corp. Stock Declines Amid Optimistic Earnings Forecast
- Stock Performance: Vistra Corp. (VST) declined by 2.31% to $158.63 in the latest trading session, trailing the S&P 500's gain of 0.79%, indicating market caution regarding its short-term outlook.
- Earnings Expectations: The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show an EPS of $2.43, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 140.59%, which suggests significant improvements in profitability that may attract investor interest.
- Annual Outlook: The Zacks consensus estimates forecast an annual EPS of $9.52 and revenue of $23.85 billion, representing increases of 80.99% and 34.45% year-over-year, respectively, indicating strong growth potential within the industry that could enhance market valuation.
- Analyst Ratings: Currently, Vistra Corp. holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), and despite a recent 2.38% upward revision in EPS estimates, it reflects a cautious market sentiment towards its future performance, necessitating close monitoring of analyst updates.
See More
Vistra to Report Q2 2026 Financial Results on August 7
- Earnings Call Schedule: Vistra plans to report its Q2 2026 financial and operational results on August 7, 2026, via a live conference call and webcast starting at 10 a.m. ET, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Webcast Access: Investors can access the live webcast through the 'Investor Relations' section of Vistra's website, indicating the company's efforts in digital communication aimed at enhancing investor engagement and information accessibility.
- Conference Call Registration: Participants must register in advance to receive a dial-in number, ensuring smooth proceedings and reflecting the company's focus on participant experience, thereby enhancing investor interaction.
- Replay Availability: A replay of the call will be available on Vistra's website for one year post-event, demonstrating the company's commitment to information transparency and allowing investors who could not attend live to access key insights.
See More
Vistra to Report Q2 2026 Financial Results on August 7
- Earnings Call Schedule: Vistra plans to report its Q2 2026 financial and operational results on August 7, 2026, via a live conference call and webcast starting at 10 a.m. ET, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Webcast Access: Investors can access the live webcast through the 'Investor Relations' section of Vistra's website, indicating the company's efforts in digital communication aimed at enhancing interaction and information sharing with stakeholders.
- Conference Call Registration: Participants must register in advance to receive a dial-in number, ensuring a smooth meeting process and demonstrating the company's focus on participant experience, thereby enhancing the professionalism of the call.
- Replay Availability: The webcast will be available for replay on Vistra's website for one year post-call, allowing investors who cannot attend live to review the information, further enhancing accessibility and the company's accountability to its investors.
See More
Vistra Stock Drops 30%, Presents Buying Opportunity
- Stock Price Analysis: Vistra's stock has dropped 30% from its all-time high of $217.02, currently trading around $150, reflecting market concerns over its growth potential, particularly due to new rules capping electricity capacity prices.
- Market Performance Comparison: While energy stocks have rallied this year due to Middle East conflicts and surging AI market demand, Vistra has declined approximately 6% year-to-date and nearly 20% over the past 12 months, indicating its competitive disadvantages.
- Financial Outlook: Analysts expect Vistra's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 15% and 16% from 2025 to 2028, respectively, despite its current enterprise value of $70.7 billion and a low valuation of three times revenue, suggesting significant undervaluation potential.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Vistra has repurchased 30% of its shares over the past five years, and although its forward yield is only 0.6%, a low payout ratio of 15% provides ample room for future dividend increases, indicating a proactive approach to shareholder returns.
See More
Vistra Energy's Stock Decline: Analysis of Causes
- Stock Performance: Vistra (VST) has seen a decline of approximately 6% year-to-date and nearly 20% over the past 12 months, reflecting market concerns about its growth prospects amid rising oil prices due to Middle East conflicts.
- Market Challenges: Proposed new rules by PJM Interconnection to cap electricity capacity prices have pressured Vistra's profitability, compounded by the company's decision to shut down a significant portion of its Moss Landing battery storage facility, which faced multiple fires.
- Long-Term Investment Potential: Despite regulatory challenges and outages, Vistra maintains crucial data center partnerships with Meta and Amazon, with analysts projecting revenue and adjusted EBITDA CAGRs of 15% and 16% from 2025 to 2028, indicating solid long-term growth prospects.
- Valuation Appeal: With an enterprise value of $70.7 billion, Vistra's stock trades at just three times this year's revenue and ten times this year's adjusted EBITDA, making it a compelling buy despite shedding its
See More
Walmart and Vistra Options Trading Activity Surges
- Walmart Options Volume: Today, Walmart's options volume reached 182,812 contracts, equivalent to approximately 18.3 million shares, indicating a trading activity level that is 75.2% of its average daily volume over the past month, suggesting strong market interest in its future performance.
- High Put Option Activity: Among Walmart's options, the $110 strike put option stands out with 20,633 contracts traded today, representing about 2.1 million shares, indicating an increased expectation among investors for a potential decline in stock price.
- Vistra Options Trading: Concurrently, Vistra's options volume is at 25,100 contracts, approximately 2.5 million shares, accounting for 57.1% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, reflecting a rising market interest in the company as well.
- Active Call Options: For Vistra, the $190 strike call option has seen 5,050 contracts traded today, representing around 505,000 shares, suggesting growing investor confidence in the potential for future stock price increases.
See More
Vistra Corp. Stock Declines Amid Optimistic Earnings Forecast
- Stock Performance: Vistra Corp. (VST) declined by 2.31% to $158.63 in the latest trading session, trailing the S&P 500's gain of 0.79%, indicating market caution regarding its short-term outlook.
- Earnings Expectations: The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show an EPS of $2.43, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 140.59%, which suggests significant improvements in profitability that may attract investor interest.
- Annual Outlook: The Zacks consensus estimates forecast an annual EPS of $9.52 and revenue of $23.85 billion, representing increases of 80.99% and 34.45% year-over-year, respectively, indicating strong growth potential within the industry that could enhance market valuation.
- Analyst Ratings: Currently, Vistra Corp. holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), and despite a recent 2.38% upward revision in EPS estimates, it reflects a cautious market sentiment towards its future performance, necessitating close monitoring of analyst updates.
See More
