Analysis of Archer Aviation's Stock Price Plunge
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 30 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Stock Price Decline: Archer Aviation's stock has plummeted from a high of $17.14 in February 2021 to under $5 today, primarily due to its failure to produce the promised 10 eVTOLs by 2024, having only manufactured 2 test aircraft and 1 full-scale Midnight, which has eroded market confidence.
- Competitive Disadvantages: The Midnight's lower top speed and shorter range compared to Joby Aviation's offerings, along with Archer's lag in the FAA certification process, have raised investor concerns about its future prospects, exacerbating the stock's decline.
- Backlog Situation: Despite these challenges, Archer's indicative backlog swelled to $6 billion by the end of 2025, indicating potential market demand for its products, and successful FAA certification could enhance production capacity and revenue.
- Future Revenue Expectations: Analysts project Archer's revenue to rise from $9.5 million in 2026 to $428.4 million by 2028, and with a market cap of $3.6 billion, its valuation at 7 times its 2028 sales appears relatively reasonable, suggesting potential for recovery if production ramps up.
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Analyst Views on ACHR
Wall Street analysts forecast ACHR stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4.980
Low
8.00
Averages
12.40
High
18.00
Current: 4.980
Low
8.00
Averages
12.40
High
18.00
About ACHR
Archer Aviation Inc. is an aerospace company. It is engaged in providing customers with advanced aircraft and related technologies and services in the United States and internationally in both the commercial and defense sectors. Its commercial line of business consists of the sale of its commercial aircraft (Archer Direct), such as Midnight, to aircraft operators as well as technologies and services related thereto, including commercial launch (certification, testing, training, demonstration, market survey and early trial operations), and maintenance and repair. Its defense line of business consists of the sale of aircraft and related technologies for defense applications. Its initial product is intended to be a hybrid-propulsion, vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft. Its Midnight aircraft is designed around its proprietary 12-tilt-6 distributed electric propulsion platform. It carries four passengers plus a pilot. The aircraft is purpose-built for air taxi operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Archer Aviation Stock Experiences Significant Pullback
- Stock Pullback: Archer Aviation's stock fell 30.5% in June, contrasting with the S&P 500's 1.1% decline, indicating a significant loss of investor confidence in high-valuation growth stocks, leading to a market cap of approximately $4.1 billion being heavily impacted.
- Macroeconomic Concerns: Investor fears regarding potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, have negatively influenced market expectations for Archer's future performance, contributing to the stock's decline.
- Signs of Market Recovery: In July, Archer's stock rebounded over 9%, contrasting with slight increases in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, suggesting a renewed optimism in the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) industry.
- Industry Collaboration Outlook: Joby Aviation's partnership with Toyota is seen as a positive signal for the eVTOL sector, and Archer's similar collaboration with Stellantis may bolster investor confidence in the industry's future profitability, despite ongoing competitive pressures.
See More
Archer Aviation Stock Rebounds Amid eVTOL Industry Optimism
- Stock Recovery: Archer Aviation's stock rebounded over 9% in early July after a significant 30.5% drop in June, indicating a resurgence of market optimism surrounding the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) industry.
- Market Environment Impact: Despite a market capitalization of approximately $4.1 billion, Archer's stock has declined about 47% over the past year due to investor concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, highlighting the vulnerability of high-growth-dependent stocks in rising rate environments.
- Industry Developments: Joby Aviation's joint venture with Toyota is viewed as a positive signal for the eVTOL sector, and while Joby is a major competitor, this partnership could enhance the industry's outlook; Archer's collaboration with Stellantis is similarly seen as a strategic advantage.
- Investor Sentiment: The stock's recovery aligns with broader market improvements and positive news in the electric aviation sector, although the analyst team did not include Archer in their current top investment recommendations, the market remains optimistic about its future potential.
See More
Vertical Aerospace Secures Key Supplier Agreement for Valo eVTOL
- Supply Chain Risk Mitigation: Vertical Aerospace's long-term agreement with Astronics for power distribution systems significantly reduces supply chain risks for its Valo eVTOL, although substantial dilution risk remains due to ongoing cash needs.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: This deal is expected to accelerate development and production, bolstering the company's competitive position in the eVTOL market, despite projections indicating earnings won't materialize until 2032, leading to cautious optimism from the market.
- Enhanced Financing Capability: The company has secured access to up to $850 million in financing, which, while requiring equity issuance to raise cash, provides at least 12 months of financial runway for its operations.
- Shareholder Dilution Risk: Projections indicate that Vertical's share count will rise from 157 million in 2026 to 373 million by 2032, highlighting significant dilution risks for existing shareholders as the company executes its orders.
See More
Vertical Aerospace Signs Long-Term Agreement, Positive Outlook
- Supply Chain Assurance: Vertical Aerospace's long-term agreement with Astronics for power distribution systems ensures the supply for its Valo eVTOL, helping to de-risk the business model and accelerate production, thereby enhancing market competitiveness.
- Market Outlook: The company currently has 1,500 preorders for its Valo eVTOL, and while it faces challenges of not generating earnings until 2032, the signing of long-term agreements instills confidence in its future production capabilities.
- Financing Risks: Despite securing up to $850 million in financing to support operations, significant dilution risks for shareholders are anticipated, with projections indicating an increase in share count from 157 million in 2026 to 373 million by 2032.
- Investor Considerations: As a high-risk stock, Vertical Aerospace is suited for fully committed and patient eVTOL investors, although the ongoing cash needs and potential dilution issues remain critical points of concern.
See More
Archer Aviation Advances Safety in Electric Aircraft Development
- Safety First: Archer Aviation prioritizes safety in the development of its Midnight electric aircraft by designing multiple layers of redundancy in critical flight systems, significantly enhancing operational reliability and strengthening its competitive position in the emerging electric aircraft market.
- Redundant Systems Integration: The Midnight aircraft incorporates redundancy across key flight systems, including propulsion, power, and flight control architecture, which not only improves overall system reliability but also supports compliance with stringent aviation safety standards necessary for certification.
- Commercialization Outlook: Archer's emphasis on safety complements its broader aircraft development strategy, aiming to enhance operational resilience and boost future passenger confidence, thereby facilitating commercial adoption of electric aircraft.
- Industry Competitive Edge: As the electric aircraft industry matures, safety-focused design is expected to remain a key competitive differentiator, with Archer's ongoing investment in redundant aircraft architecture strengthening its long-term growth prospects while supporting the commercialization of its Midnight platform.
See More
Analysis of Archer Aviation's Stock Price Plunge
- Stock Price Decline: Archer Aviation's stock has plummeted from a high of $17.14 in February 2021 to under $5 today, primarily due to its failure to produce the promised 10 eVTOLs by 2024, having only manufactured 2 test aircraft and 1 full-scale Midnight, which has eroded market confidence.
- Competitive Disadvantages: The Midnight's lower top speed and shorter range compared to Joby Aviation's offerings, along with Archer's lag in the FAA certification process, have raised investor concerns about its future prospects, exacerbating the stock's decline.
- Backlog Situation: Despite these challenges, Archer's indicative backlog swelled to $6 billion by the end of 2025, indicating potential market demand for its products, and successful FAA certification could enhance production capacity and revenue.
- Future Revenue Expectations: Analysts project Archer's revenue to rise from $9.5 million in 2026 to $428.4 million by 2028, and with a market cap of $3.6 billion, its valuation at 7 times its 2028 sales appears relatively reasonable, suggesting potential for recovery if production ramps up.
See More
Archer Aviation Stock Experiences Significant Pullback
- Stock Pullback: Archer Aviation's stock fell 30.5% in June, contrasting with the S&P 500's 1.1% decline, indicating a significant loss of investor confidence in high-valuation growth stocks, leading to a market cap of approximately $4.1 billion being heavily impacted.
- Macroeconomic Concerns: Investor fears regarding potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, have negatively influenced market expectations for Archer's future performance, contributing to the stock's decline.
- Signs of Market Recovery: In July, Archer's stock rebounded over 9%, contrasting with slight increases in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, suggesting a renewed optimism in the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) industry.
- Industry Collaboration Outlook: Joby Aviation's partnership with Toyota is seen as a positive signal for the eVTOL sector, and Archer's similar collaboration with Stellantis may bolster investor confidence in the industry's future profitability, despite ongoing competitive pressures.
See More
Archer Aviation Stock Rebounds Amid eVTOL Industry Optimism
- Stock Recovery: Archer Aviation's stock rebounded over 9% in early July after a significant 30.5% drop in June, indicating a resurgence of market optimism surrounding the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) industry.
- Market Environment Impact: Despite a market capitalization of approximately $4.1 billion, Archer's stock has declined about 47% over the past year due to investor concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, highlighting the vulnerability of high-growth-dependent stocks in rising rate environments.
- Industry Developments: Joby Aviation's joint venture with Toyota is viewed as a positive signal for the eVTOL sector, and while Joby is a major competitor, this partnership could enhance the industry's outlook; Archer's collaboration with Stellantis is similarly seen as a strategic advantage.
- Investor Sentiment: The stock's recovery aligns with broader market improvements and positive news in the electric aviation sector, although the analyst team did not include Archer in their current top investment recommendations, the market remains optimistic about its future potential.
See More
Vertical Aerospace Secures Key Supplier Agreement for Valo eVTOL
- Supply Chain Risk Mitigation: Vertical Aerospace's long-term agreement with Astronics for power distribution systems significantly reduces supply chain risks for its Valo eVTOL, although substantial dilution risk remains due to ongoing cash needs.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: This deal is expected to accelerate development and production, bolstering the company's competitive position in the eVTOL market, despite projections indicating earnings won't materialize until 2032, leading to cautious optimism from the market.
- Enhanced Financing Capability: The company has secured access to up to $850 million in financing, which, while requiring equity issuance to raise cash, provides at least 12 months of financial runway for its operations.
- Shareholder Dilution Risk: Projections indicate that Vertical's share count will rise from 157 million in 2026 to 373 million by 2032, highlighting significant dilution risks for existing shareholders as the company executes its orders.
See More
Vertical Aerospace Signs Long-Term Agreement, Positive Outlook
- Supply Chain Assurance: Vertical Aerospace's long-term agreement with Astronics for power distribution systems ensures the supply for its Valo eVTOL, helping to de-risk the business model and accelerate production, thereby enhancing market competitiveness.
- Market Outlook: The company currently has 1,500 preorders for its Valo eVTOL, and while it faces challenges of not generating earnings until 2032, the signing of long-term agreements instills confidence in its future production capabilities.
- Financing Risks: Despite securing up to $850 million in financing to support operations, significant dilution risks for shareholders are anticipated, with projections indicating an increase in share count from 157 million in 2026 to 373 million by 2032.
- Investor Considerations: As a high-risk stock, Vertical Aerospace is suited for fully committed and patient eVTOL investors, although the ongoing cash needs and potential dilution issues remain critical points of concern.
See More
Archer Aviation Advances Safety in Electric Aircraft Development
- Safety First: Archer Aviation prioritizes safety in the development of its Midnight electric aircraft by designing multiple layers of redundancy in critical flight systems, significantly enhancing operational reliability and strengthening its competitive position in the emerging electric aircraft market.
- Redundant Systems Integration: The Midnight aircraft incorporates redundancy across key flight systems, including propulsion, power, and flight control architecture, which not only improves overall system reliability but also supports compliance with stringent aviation safety standards necessary for certification.
- Commercialization Outlook: Archer's emphasis on safety complements its broader aircraft development strategy, aiming to enhance operational resilience and boost future passenger confidence, thereby facilitating commercial adoption of electric aircraft.
- Industry Competitive Edge: As the electric aircraft industry matures, safety-focused design is expected to remain a key competitive differentiator, with Archer's ongoing investment in redundant aircraft architecture strengthening its long-term growth prospects while supporting the commercialization of its Midnight platform.
See More
Analysis of Archer Aviation's Stock Price Plunge
- Stock Price Decline: Archer Aviation's stock has plummeted from a high of $17.14 in February 2021 to under $5 today, primarily due to its failure to produce the promised 10 eVTOLs by 2024, having only manufactured 2 test aircraft and 1 full-scale Midnight, which has eroded market confidence.
- Competitive Disadvantages: The Midnight's lower top speed and shorter range compared to Joby Aviation's offerings, along with Archer's lag in the FAA certification process, have raised investor concerns about its future prospects, exacerbating the stock's decline.
- Backlog Situation: Despite these challenges, Archer's indicative backlog swelled to $6 billion by the end of 2025, indicating potential market demand for its products, and successful FAA certification could enhance production capacity and revenue.
- Future Revenue Expectations: Analysts project Archer's revenue to rise from $9.5 million in 2026 to $428.4 million by 2028, and with a market cap of $3.6 billion, its valuation at 7 times its 2028 sales appears relatively reasonable, suggesting potential for recovery if production ramps up.
See More
