Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Post $9.15B Outflows, JPMorgan Reaffirms $266K Target
Bitcoinand etherstart March stuck in a post-Iran shock range as corporate treasuries ramp up BTC and ETH accumulation into ETF outflows and macro risk, setting up a tug-of-war between listed "bitcoin standard" plays, tokenization pivots, and mining-to-AI transitions. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with "Crypto Currents," daily from The Fly. Join us at 2 PM ET for your essential briefing on the fast-moving world of cryptocurrency on FlyCast radio.BITCOIN, ETHER ETFS POST $9.15B IN OUTFLOWS AS FEBRUARY TURNS WORST IN A DECADE:U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen about $6.39B in net outflows over four straight months, while ether ETFs shed roughly $2.76B, the longest losing streak since launch and a clear sign of cooling institutional appetite for listed products, according toMEXCandChainCatcher. Bitcoin has nearly halved from its October high above $126,000 and ether is down more than 60% from August peaks above $4,950, capping a February where BTC fell about 15% and ETH nearly 20%, both among their weakest February returns in a decade, according toCoinglass data cited by Cointelegraph.JPMORGAN SEES CLARITY ACT AS 2H CATALYST, REAFFIRMS $266K BTC TARGET:JPMorgan'sresearch desk still leans structurally bullish, arguing the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure bill could be approved by mid-2026 and unlock bank and broker participation, and it reiterates a long-term bitcoin target of $266,000 on a volatility-adjusted gold framework.IRAN STRIKES SHOW BTC TRADING LIKE RISK ASSETS, GOLD OUTPERFORMS:The Iran strikes delivered a live-fire test of the "digital gold" story, and bitcoin failed to decouple from risk assets. BTC dropped 3–4% to around $63,250 immediately after U.S./Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran, briefly rebounded above $67,000, and is now hovering back near pre-strike levels around the mid-$60Ks, having erased the initial shock move but not the broader February drawdown, according toThe Wall Street JournalandBarron's.Gold has outperformed sharply, climbing more than 5% over three days while bitcoin traded roughly flat, undercutting the hedge narrative and reinforcing BTC's role as a high-beta macro risk asset, according to. Nearly 46% of bitcoin supply, about 9.09M BTC, now sits at an on-chain loss, a profile historically associated with mid-to-late bear phases and heavier pressure on listed proxies like Coinbaseand bitcoin miners when geopolitical volatility spikes, according to.STRATEGY, PROCAP DOUBLE DOWN ON BTC WHILE BITMINE BUILDS $9.9B ETH TREASURY:Strategycontinued to lean into its bitcoin policy, disclosing purchases of 3,015 BTC for $204.1M between February 23 and March 1, funded by at-the-market equity issuance that raised roughly $237M across common and preferred, according to the company'sForm 8‑The company now holds 720,737 BTC at an average cost near $75,985 per coin, well above the current spot price, implying about $7B in unrealized losses, even as the board raised the STRC preferred dividend to 11.5%, its seventh consecutive hike since mid‑2025, according toYahoo Finance.Anthony Pompliano's ProCap Financialadded 450 BTC via structured put assignments with FalconX, taking its treasury to 5,457 BTC while simultaneously repurchasing more than 782K common shares at a discount to NAV and positioning itself as a mid-tier public BTC holder, according to a.On the Ethereum side, Bitmine Immersion Technologiesdisclosed a $9.9B balance sheet anchored by 4,473,587 ETH, about 3.7% of total ETH supply, including 3,040,483 ETH staked and generating an estimated $172M in annualized staking revenue, with chairman Tom Lee explicitly "buying the mini crypto winter" after acquiring roughly 50,928 ETH in the last week, according to.F2POOL FOUNDER BUILDS LARGE ETH POSITION; TETHER SHIFTS $151M IN TOKENIZED GOLD:Ethereum positioning is being reshaped by whales and corporates: Bitmine's on-chain footprint confirms its status as the largest ETH treasury among public companies, while Arkham Intelligence flags a wallet linked to F2Pool founder Chun Wang that withdrew about $67.5M of ETH from Binance over two weeks and now holds roughly $150M of ETH on Aaveafter routing about $240M in stablecoins through exchanges, according toU.Today. In tokenized commodities, Tether moved 28,723 XAUT, around $151M of tokenized gold, to Abraxas Capital, the largest such transfer in nearly three weeks and a data point that rhymes with Neptune Digital Assets' plan to add tokenized gold and silver to its treasury as a volatility buffer alongside BTC and staking assets, according toChainCatcher.ETF FLOWS STAY MIXED AS SOLANA ETP INFLOWS CONTRAST WITH BTC, ETH PROFIT-TAKING:ETF flow trackers show a mixed picture beneath the headline outflows: across 10 bitcoin ETFs and nine ether ETFs, March 2 saw modest single-day net outflows of (548) BTC and (12,307) ETH, but both assets still show sizable seven-day net inflows, suggesting short-term profit-taking rather than a wholesale institutional exit, according toKuCoin's flash note. SolanaETPs are a notable outlier, posting both positive daily and weekly inflows, highlighting residual risk appetite for higher-beta layer‑1 exposure even as large‑cap benchmarks struggle.COINCHECK CLOSES 3IQ DEAL AS BSTR BITCOIN SPAC REVIVES TREASURY LISTING PLAYBOOK:On the infrastructure side, Coincheck Groupclosed its acquisition of roughly 99.8% of Canadian manager 3iQ, adding a pioneer in bitcoin, ether staking, and solana staking ETPs to its franchise and deepening a strategy aimed at global institutional distribution beyond its Japan exchange roots, according to. Cantor Equity Partnersadvanced its BSTR bitcoin SPAC,that would list a dedicated treasury vehicle seeded with 30,021 BTC and around $1.4B in financing instruments under Blockstream CEO Adam Back, even as the broader bitcoin SPAC market has largely gone dormant.FORUM MARKETS DUMPS ETH TREASURY LABEL; JIUZI CHASES $300M CRYPTO-FUNDED PLACEMENT:Forum Markets, the former ETHZilla, began trading today under its new ticker and brand, formally abandoning an Ethereum treasury model that coincided with a roughly 96% share-price collapse and pivoting toward tokenized real‑world asset infrastructure, including fractionalized ownership of commercial jet engines, according to a. Jiuzi Holdingsmeanwhile expanded a crypto-funded private placement from $60M to a targeted $300M to build out on-chain custody and treasury infrastructure, underscoring that for some small caps, crypto remains a capital formation and balance sheet story rather than a pure trading proxy, according to.DIGI POWER X ARMS 200 GOES LIVE AS RIOT EARNINGS TEST MINING-TO-AI STORY:The mining-to-AI narrative continues to build as hashpower-exposed names seek higher-margin compute revenue streams. Digi Power X, a former bitcoin miner, has commissioned its first ARMS 200 modular data center at its Alabama facility and expects GPU-as-a-Service revenue to begin in April 2026, guiding to about $15M in annualized revenue per MW and laying out a roadmap to 10 MW in Alabama by Q3 and additional capacity in New York by Q2, according to apress release carried by the Detroit Free Press.Riot Platformsreports Q4 results after the close today, with the Street looking for low double‑digit revenue growth and a modest EPS loss as investors focus on how quickly its planned 1.7 GW power pipeline and AI/HPC pivot can offset softer bitcoin economics and rising geopolitical risk premia, according to the company'sIR site. With bitcoin having just logged its worst February since 2013 and nearly half of supply at a loss, earnings commentary from Riot and peers will help equity investors gauge whether miners remain geared macro trades or evolve into diversified compute utilities.VC FLOWS SHIFT TO INFRASTRUCTURE AS STS DIGITAL RAISES $30M FOR CRYPTO OPTIONS:Venture funding in crypto hit roughly $883M in February, but deal counts fell to a 5.5‑year low, with capital increasingly directed to stablecoin infrastructure, custody, and compliance rather than speculative token launches, and roughly 85% of 2025 token debuts now trading below issue levels, according toMEXC's recap of The Block data. STS Digital, a Bermuda-based trading and options venue, raised $30M from a roster of traditional and crypto-native investors to expand its institutional-grade spot and options platform, reinforcing the theme that market structure and derivatives rails, not consumer tokens, are where late-cycle VC dollars are concentrating, according toFinTech Futures.PREDICTION MARKETS FACE SCRUTINY AFTER $529M IN IRAN-RELATED POLYMARKET BETS:Prediction markets also drew scrutiny after Polymarket saw about $529M traded on Iran-related contracts, with a handful of newly created wallets generating an estimated $1.2M in profits and attracting attention from both blockchain analytics firms and U.S. lawmakers, according to.PRICE ACTION:As of time of writing, bitcoin was trading at$70,011.61, while ether was trading at$2,079.83,according to price data from TipRanks.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on JPM
About JPM
About the author
2026 IPO Fundraising Hits 20-Year High
- Surge in IPO Fundraising: In 2026, an estimated $260 billion is expected to be raised through IPOs, nearly matching the post-pandemic surge of 2021, indicating that corporate confidence is peaking, which may foreshadow potential market pullback risks.
- Historical Trend Warnings: Historical data shows that spikes in IPO activity often precede significant market corrections, as seen in 1999 and 1929, suggesting that the current IPO boom could signal impending economic headwinds, prompting investors to remain vigilant.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Harvard economist notes that investors typically fund IPO participation by selling other stocks, revealing that for every $1 removed, the total market cap falls by $5, indicating overly optimistic market sentiment and the risk of 'irrational exuberance'.
- Investment Strategy Advice: Despite the surge in IPOs, investors should analyze market conditions rationally and avoid panic-driven decisions, maintaining composure to assess risks versus rewards in anticipation of potential market fluctuations.
Fiserv Discusses Sale of Payments Business with Major Banks
- Stock Surge: Fiserv shares rallied over 5% after The Wall Street Journal reported discussions with major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America regarding the sale of its payments infrastructure business, potentially leading to strategic restructuring and enhanced market competitiveness.
- Acquisition Deal: Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced a $10 billion acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals to expand its product line in rare hormonal disease treatments, although Vertex shares dipped nearly 1%, this deal is expected to strengthen its market position.
- Stock Upgrade: First Solar's stock rose nearly 3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating from neutral to buy, with analysts citing potential trade policy shifts as a reason for investors to buy the dip, boosting market confidence.
- EV Stock Decline: Rivian shares tumbled 9% despite revenue and delivery guidance exceeding market expectations, as the company announced a plan to sell 75 million new shares for a significant capital raise, negatively impacting investor sentiment.
Fiserv Explores Sale of Debit Card Transaction Network to Major U.S. Banks
- Potential Sale Negotiations: Payments technology company Fiserv is in discussions with major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial Services Group, regarding a potential sale of its debit card transaction network, reflecting a strategic shift in the payments industry among traditional banks.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the news, Fiserv's stock price jumped approximately 7% during pre-market trading on Tuesday, indicating a positive market reaction to the potential deal, although there remains uncertainty about whether an agreement will be reached.
- Regulatory Risk Considerations: Some potential buyers have reportedly opted against pursuing the transaction due to concerns that it could attract scrutiny from lawmakers, regulators, and merchants, highlighting the sensitivity and complexity of the regulatory environment.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: The ongoing sale discussions suggest that traditional banks are looking to strengthen their control over consumer transaction technology by directly owning a debit payment network, in response to competition from fintech firms and federal restrictions on debit card interchange fees.
Market Crash Risk Rises: Three Stocks to Watch
- Market Crash Warning: The current Shiller ratio is nearing 42, a level historically only surpassed once, which was followed by a market crash and three years of losses, indicating that investors should remain vigilant against potential risks.
- JPMorgan's Strong Performance: As the largest bank in the U.S., JPMorgan reported a 10% revenue increase and a 13% net income rise in Q1 2026, underscoring its critical role in the global economy and robust financial stability.
- Visa's Revenue Growth: Visa's revenue increased by 17% year-over-year in Q2 2026, with adjusted earnings per share rising by 20%, demonstrating strong profitability and market demand despite inflationary pressures.
- Berkshire Hathaway's Cash Reserves: Berkshire Hathaway currently holds nearly $400 billion in cash, positioning it to deploy capital effectively during a market crash, thereby enhancing its attractiveness to investors.
SpaceX Joins Nasdaq-100 Index Today, Triggering $4.3 Billion Passive Buying
- Passive Buying Catalyst: J.P. Morgan anticipates that SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 will trigger approximately $4.3 billion in passive buying, enhancing short-term demand for the stock, although profitability remains a concern.
- Float Limitations: With only 3% to 4% of shares publicly traded, Nasdaq may limit SpaceX's weight in the index, suggesting that while buying pressure may increase, stock price volatility could also intensify, warranting caution from investors.
- Starlink Business Outlook: SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for 60% of total sales, indicating its potential as a profit engine, despite the company still facing overall losses.
- Increased Execution Risks: As SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100, investors should monitor the progress of its Starship project and the losses in its AI business, as these factors could significantly impact future profitability and stock performance.
Is a Market Crash on the Horizon?
- Market Crash Risk: The current Shiller ratio is nearly 42, a level only surpassed once in history, which was followed by a market crash and three years of losses, prompting investors to remain vigilant and prepared for potential risks.
- JPMorgan's Strong Performance: As the largest bank in the U.S., JPMorgan reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase and a 13% rise in net income in Q1 2026, with its robust balance sheet and 1.78% dividend yield making it a protective stock during market turmoil.
- Visa's Growth Potential: Visa's revenue grew 17% year-over-year in Q2 2026, with adjusted earnings per share up 20%, and despite inflationary pressures, its business model remains attractive during a market crash, offering a 0.7% dividend yield.
- Berkshire Hathaway's Capital Advantage: With a market cap of $1.1 trillion and nearly $400 billion in cash reserves, Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business positions it to effectively deploy capital during a market crash, seizing investment opportunities as stock prices decline.
2026 IPO Fundraising Hits 20-Year High
- Surge in IPO Fundraising: In 2026, an estimated $260 billion is expected to be raised through IPOs, nearly matching the post-pandemic surge of 2021, indicating that corporate confidence is peaking, which may foreshadow potential market pullback risks.
- Historical Trend Warnings: Historical data shows that spikes in IPO activity often precede significant market corrections, as seen in 1999 and 1929, suggesting that the current IPO boom could signal impending economic headwinds, prompting investors to remain vigilant.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Harvard economist notes that investors typically fund IPO participation by selling other stocks, revealing that for every $1 removed, the total market cap falls by $5, indicating overly optimistic market sentiment and the risk of 'irrational exuberance'.
- Investment Strategy Advice: Despite the surge in IPOs, investors should analyze market conditions rationally and avoid panic-driven decisions, maintaining composure to assess risks versus rewards in anticipation of potential market fluctuations.
Fiserv Discusses Sale of Payments Business with Major Banks
- Stock Surge: Fiserv shares rallied over 5% after The Wall Street Journal reported discussions with major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America regarding the sale of its payments infrastructure business, potentially leading to strategic restructuring and enhanced market competitiveness.
- Acquisition Deal: Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced a $10 billion acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals to expand its product line in rare hormonal disease treatments, although Vertex shares dipped nearly 1%, this deal is expected to strengthen its market position.
- Stock Upgrade: First Solar's stock rose nearly 3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating from neutral to buy, with analysts citing potential trade policy shifts as a reason for investors to buy the dip, boosting market confidence.
- EV Stock Decline: Rivian shares tumbled 9% despite revenue and delivery guidance exceeding market expectations, as the company announced a plan to sell 75 million new shares for a significant capital raise, negatively impacting investor sentiment.
Fiserv Explores Sale of Debit Card Transaction Network to Major U.S. Banks
- Potential Sale Negotiations: Payments technology company Fiserv is in discussions with major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial Services Group, regarding a potential sale of its debit card transaction network, reflecting a strategic shift in the payments industry among traditional banks.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the news, Fiserv's stock price jumped approximately 7% during pre-market trading on Tuesday, indicating a positive market reaction to the potential deal, although there remains uncertainty about whether an agreement will be reached.
- Regulatory Risk Considerations: Some potential buyers have reportedly opted against pursuing the transaction due to concerns that it could attract scrutiny from lawmakers, regulators, and merchants, highlighting the sensitivity and complexity of the regulatory environment.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: The ongoing sale discussions suggest that traditional banks are looking to strengthen their control over consumer transaction technology by directly owning a debit payment network, in response to competition from fintech firms and federal restrictions on debit card interchange fees.
Market Crash Risk Rises: Three Stocks to Watch
- Market Crash Warning: The current Shiller ratio is nearing 42, a level historically only surpassed once, which was followed by a market crash and three years of losses, indicating that investors should remain vigilant against potential risks.
- JPMorgan's Strong Performance: As the largest bank in the U.S., JPMorgan reported a 10% revenue increase and a 13% net income rise in Q1 2026, underscoring its critical role in the global economy and robust financial stability.
- Visa's Revenue Growth: Visa's revenue increased by 17% year-over-year in Q2 2026, with adjusted earnings per share rising by 20%, demonstrating strong profitability and market demand despite inflationary pressures.
- Berkshire Hathaway's Cash Reserves: Berkshire Hathaway currently holds nearly $400 billion in cash, positioning it to deploy capital effectively during a market crash, thereby enhancing its attractiveness to investors.
SpaceX Joins Nasdaq-100 Index Today, Triggering $4.3 Billion Passive Buying
- Passive Buying Catalyst: J.P. Morgan anticipates that SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 will trigger approximately $4.3 billion in passive buying, enhancing short-term demand for the stock, although profitability remains a concern.
- Float Limitations: With only 3% to 4% of shares publicly traded, Nasdaq may limit SpaceX's weight in the index, suggesting that while buying pressure may increase, stock price volatility could also intensify, warranting caution from investors.
- Starlink Business Outlook: SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for 60% of total sales, indicating its potential as a profit engine, despite the company still facing overall losses.
- Increased Execution Risks: As SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100, investors should monitor the progress of its Starship project and the losses in its AI business, as these factors could significantly impact future profitability and stock performance.
Is a Market Crash on the Horizon?
- Market Crash Risk: The current Shiller ratio is nearly 42, a level only surpassed once in history, which was followed by a market crash and three years of losses, prompting investors to remain vigilant and prepared for potential risks.
- JPMorgan's Strong Performance: As the largest bank in the U.S., JPMorgan reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase and a 13% rise in net income in Q1 2026, with its robust balance sheet and 1.78% dividend yield making it a protective stock during market turmoil.
- Visa's Growth Potential: Visa's revenue grew 17% year-over-year in Q2 2026, with adjusted earnings per share up 20%, and despite inflationary pressures, its business model remains attractive during a market crash, offering a 0.7% dividend yield.
- Berkshire Hathaway's Capital Advantage: With a market cap of $1.1 trillion and nearly $400 billion in cash reserves, Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business positions it to effectively deploy capital during a market crash, seizing investment opportunities as stock prices decline.
