Rise of Prediction Markets Disrupts DraftKings Business Model
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 24 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Increased Competition: The rise of prediction markets is disrupting DraftKings' business model, potentially leading to a decline in market share and impacting the company's future profitability.
- Stock Price Volatility: As of June 21, 2026, DraftKings' stock price stood at $1.95, reflecting market concerns about its future performance, which may affect investor confidence.
- Business Model Challenges: With the emergence of prediction markets, DraftKings needs to reassess its business strategy to navigate the new competitive landscape and maintain its market position.
- Industry Transformation Potential: The rapid development of prediction markets could reshape the entire gambling industry, necessitating that DraftKings take proactive measures to adapt to these changes and seek new growth opportunities.
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Analyst Views on DKNG
Wall Street analysts forecast DKNG stock price to rise
29 Analyst Rating
23 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 26.210
Low
30.00
Averages
42.69
High
53.00
Current: 26.210
Low
30.00
Averages
42.69
High
53.00
About DKNG
DraftKings Inc. is a digital sports entertainment and gaming company. It provides users with online and retail sports betting (together, Sportsbook), online casino (iGaming) and daily fantasy sports product offerings, as well as digital lottery courier, media, and other product offerings. Sportsbook is live with mobile and/or retail sports betting operations pursuant to regulations in 28 states, Washington, D.C., and in Ontario, Canada. It operates iGaming pursuant to regulations in five states and in Ontario, Canada under its DraftKings brand and pursuant to regulations in four states under its Golden Nugget Online Gaming brand. It owns Jackpocket, a digital lottery courier app in the United States. It is both an official daily fantasy and sports betting partner of the NFL, NHL, PGA TOUR, WNBA and UFC, as well as an official daily fantasy partner of NASCAR, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. It also owns and operates DraftKings Network, a multi-platform content ecosystem.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
John Arnold Funds Research on Sports Betting Risks
- Research Funding: John Arnold is awarding $2.6 million to universities and think tanks to study the effects of sports gambling on financial well-being, household formation, mental health, and consumer behavior, highlighting his concern over the potential risks associated with the gambling industry.
- Market Changes: Since the legalization of sports betting in the U.S. in 2018, participation in online betting has risen from 19% to 27%, reflecting the popularity of mobile apps like DraftKings and FanDuel, which have significantly lowered barriers to entry and expanded market size.
- Legislative Focus: Arnold is meeting with lawmakers to advocate for stronger regulations on sports betting and prediction markets, emphasizing the changes in product intensity and accessibility, and urging legislators to consider these factors when crafting relevant laws.
- Industry Revenue Growth: The sports betting industry reached a record $16.96 billion in revenue in 2025, indicating rapid market growth, while trading volume on prediction markets surged from $5 billion in September to $24 billion in April, demonstrating increasing investor interest in this emerging market.
See More
Zuckerberg Plans to Develop Prediction Market App
- Market Trend Focus: Zuckerberg has directed a team at Meta to develop a prediction market app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, indicating the company's attention to emerging social behaviors, which could attract younger users and enhance user engagement.
- App Functionality Concept: The app, internally referred to as 'Arena', is expected to utilize a video game-style points system to encourage user participation, although Meta has not ruled out the possibility of monetary betting, which could influence user engagement and market competition.
- Market Reaction: Following the report, stocks of DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment fell by over 2%, reflecting market concerns about the potential impact of Meta's entry into the prediction market, which may intensify pressure on existing competitors.
- User Participation Status: Recent studies indicate that 32% of Gen Z and 24% of millennials are either participating in or considering prediction markets, a trend that could drive acceptance and usage rates of Meta's 'Arena' app among younger demographics.
See More
DraftKings Launches Proprietary Prediction Markets Exchange DKeX
- Rapid Market Growth: DraftKings' prediction platform has achieved approximately $3.4 billion in annualized consumer trading volume over the past year, indicating strong market demand that is expected to further drive company revenue growth.
- Technological Integration Advantage: DKeX leverages technology and CFTC licenses acquired from Railbird Technologies, enhancing DraftKings' control over prediction markets, thereby improving operational economics and customer service quality.
- Increased User Engagement: Since the platform's launch in mid-May, over 30% of customers have utilized the combinations feature, demonstrating strong demand for a customized, sports-first prediction market experience, which is expected to drive future user growth.
- Retail Sentiment Shift: Despite DraftKings' stock declining over 35% this year, retail investor sentiment has shifted from 'neutral' to 'bearish', which may impact future market performance and investor confidence.
See More
DraftKings Launches Proprietary Prediction Markets Exchange DKeX
- Market Innovation Platform: DraftKings has launched its proprietary prediction markets exchange, DKeX, integrated into the unified DraftKings: Sports & Casino app, which is expected to accelerate innovation through greater control over content depth, operating economics, and customer experience.
- Enhanced User Experience: CEO Jason Robins highlighted that DraftKings excels in building innovative platforms, and the launch of DKeX will further enhance user experience, fostering a seamless connection for sports fans.
- Trading Volume Growth: As of June 21, DraftKings Predictions reported an annualized consumer trading volume of approximately $3.4 billion and an annualized total trading volume of about $11.3 billion, with continued growth anticipated in July driven by ongoing platform enhancements and heightened interest surrounding the World Cup.
- Product Diversification Expansion: DraftKings Predictions continues to evolve within the unified app, adding new event contracts including MLB player contracts, No Runs First Inning, and broader NBA and NHL selections, further enriching user choices and engagement.
See More
DraftKings Launches DKeX Prediction Markets Exchange, Driving Rapid Growth
- Surge in Trading Volume: DraftKings Predictions has achieved approximately $3.4 billion in consumer trading volume over the past year, indicating strong growth momentum in the sports prediction market, which is expected to further drive company revenue growth.
- Launch of New Platform: The introduction of DKeX, integrated into DraftKings' unified platform, enables the company to innovate more rapidly and enhance customer experience, thereby maintaining a competitive edge in a crowded market.
- Increased User Engagement: Since its mid-May launch, over 30% of users have utilized the combinations feature, highlighting strong demand for a customizable sports prediction market experience, which further solidifies DraftKings' position in the industry.
- Technological Integration Advantage: DKeX leverages technology and CFTC licenses obtained from DraftKings' acquisition of Railbird Technologies, enhancing the company's control over prediction market content and capabilities, thus accelerating business development.
See More
DraftKings Launches Super App Merging Sportsbook and Prediction Markets
- Super App Launch: DraftKings has merged its sportsbook and prediction product into a single 'Sports & Casino' Super App, allowing users to operate through a unified account and wallet, enhancing user experience and streamlining the betting process.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Guggenheim analyst believes DraftKings' prediction market product roadmap is progressing well, with expectations for the integration of market-making capabilities and a broader product offering ahead of the 3Q, further strengthening its competitive position in the North American online sports betting market.
- Accelerated Download Data: Recent download data shows a distinct acceleration in user growth for DraftKings in May and June, indicating its leading position among online sports betting operators and suggesting further market share expansion.
- Price Target Increase: Citizens Capital Markets raised its price target for DraftKings to $36, with analysts noting that the coming months will feature multiple milestones across DraftKings' prediction market ecosystem, underscoring the company's determination and potential in this space.
See More
John Arnold Funds Research on Sports Betting Risks
- Research Funding: John Arnold is awarding $2.6 million to universities and think tanks to study the effects of sports gambling on financial well-being, household formation, mental health, and consumer behavior, highlighting his concern over the potential risks associated with the gambling industry.
- Market Changes: Since the legalization of sports betting in the U.S. in 2018, participation in online betting has risen from 19% to 27%, reflecting the popularity of mobile apps like DraftKings and FanDuel, which have significantly lowered barriers to entry and expanded market size.
- Legislative Focus: Arnold is meeting with lawmakers to advocate for stronger regulations on sports betting and prediction markets, emphasizing the changes in product intensity and accessibility, and urging legislators to consider these factors when crafting relevant laws.
- Industry Revenue Growth: The sports betting industry reached a record $16.96 billion in revenue in 2025, indicating rapid market growth, while trading volume on prediction markets surged from $5 billion in September to $24 billion in April, demonstrating increasing investor interest in this emerging market.
See More
Zuckerberg Plans to Develop Prediction Market App
- Market Trend Focus: Zuckerberg has directed a team at Meta to develop a prediction market app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, indicating the company's attention to emerging social behaviors, which could attract younger users and enhance user engagement.
- App Functionality Concept: The app, internally referred to as 'Arena', is expected to utilize a video game-style points system to encourage user participation, although Meta has not ruled out the possibility of monetary betting, which could influence user engagement and market competition.
- Market Reaction: Following the report, stocks of DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment fell by over 2%, reflecting market concerns about the potential impact of Meta's entry into the prediction market, which may intensify pressure on existing competitors.
- User Participation Status: Recent studies indicate that 32% of Gen Z and 24% of millennials are either participating in or considering prediction markets, a trend that could drive acceptance and usage rates of Meta's 'Arena' app among younger demographics.
See More
DraftKings Launches Proprietary Prediction Markets Exchange DKeX
- Rapid Market Growth: DraftKings' prediction platform has achieved approximately $3.4 billion in annualized consumer trading volume over the past year, indicating strong market demand that is expected to further drive company revenue growth.
- Technological Integration Advantage: DKeX leverages technology and CFTC licenses acquired from Railbird Technologies, enhancing DraftKings' control over prediction markets, thereby improving operational economics and customer service quality.
- Increased User Engagement: Since the platform's launch in mid-May, over 30% of customers have utilized the combinations feature, demonstrating strong demand for a customized, sports-first prediction market experience, which is expected to drive future user growth.
- Retail Sentiment Shift: Despite DraftKings' stock declining over 35% this year, retail investor sentiment has shifted from 'neutral' to 'bearish', which may impact future market performance and investor confidence.
See More
DraftKings Launches Proprietary Prediction Markets Exchange DKeX
- Market Innovation Platform: DraftKings has launched its proprietary prediction markets exchange, DKeX, integrated into the unified DraftKings: Sports & Casino app, which is expected to accelerate innovation through greater control over content depth, operating economics, and customer experience.
- Enhanced User Experience: CEO Jason Robins highlighted that DraftKings excels in building innovative platforms, and the launch of DKeX will further enhance user experience, fostering a seamless connection for sports fans.
- Trading Volume Growth: As of June 21, DraftKings Predictions reported an annualized consumer trading volume of approximately $3.4 billion and an annualized total trading volume of about $11.3 billion, with continued growth anticipated in July driven by ongoing platform enhancements and heightened interest surrounding the World Cup.
- Product Diversification Expansion: DraftKings Predictions continues to evolve within the unified app, adding new event contracts including MLB player contracts, No Runs First Inning, and broader NBA and NHL selections, further enriching user choices and engagement.
See More
DraftKings Launches DKeX Prediction Markets Exchange, Driving Rapid Growth
- Surge in Trading Volume: DraftKings Predictions has achieved approximately $3.4 billion in consumer trading volume over the past year, indicating strong growth momentum in the sports prediction market, which is expected to further drive company revenue growth.
- Launch of New Platform: The introduction of DKeX, integrated into DraftKings' unified platform, enables the company to innovate more rapidly and enhance customer experience, thereby maintaining a competitive edge in a crowded market.
- Increased User Engagement: Since its mid-May launch, over 30% of users have utilized the combinations feature, highlighting strong demand for a customizable sports prediction market experience, which further solidifies DraftKings' position in the industry.
- Technological Integration Advantage: DKeX leverages technology and CFTC licenses obtained from DraftKings' acquisition of Railbird Technologies, enhancing the company's control over prediction market content and capabilities, thus accelerating business development.
See More
DraftKings Launches Super App Merging Sportsbook and Prediction Markets
- Super App Launch: DraftKings has merged its sportsbook and prediction product into a single 'Sports & Casino' Super App, allowing users to operate through a unified account and wallet, enhancing user experience and streamlining the betting process.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Guggenheim analyst believes DraftKings' prediction market product roadmap is progressing well, with expectations for the integration of market-making capabilities and a broader product offering ahead of the 3Q, further strengthening its competitive position in the North American online sports betting market.
- Accelerated Download Data: Recent download data shows a distinct acceleration in user growth for DraftKings in May and June, indicating its leading position among online sports betting operators and suggesting further market share expansion.
- Price Target Increase: Citizens Capital Markets raised its price target for DraftKings to $36, with analysts noting that the coming months will feature multiple milestones across DraftKings' prediction market ecosystem, underscoring the company's determination and potential in this space.
See More
