IP Should I Buy
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International Paper is not a strong buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 to deploy. The stock has some supportive analyst upgrades and a reasonable valuation of interest implied by the market, but the latest earnings direction was weaker, congress members have been net sellers, and there is no fresh news catalyst. Since the investor is impatient and does not want to wait for a better entry, my direct view is to hold off rather than buy at this price.
IP is trading at 38.79 with price sitting just below resistance at 39.39 and below the next resistance at 40.26. The MACD histogram is positive at 0.178, which supports short-term momentum, but it is positively contracting, so momentum is fading. RSI_6 at 71.57 is elevated and suggests the stock is extended rather than offering a clean entry. Moving averages are converging, which usually signals a lack of strong trend conviction. Overall, the technical picture is neutral-to-slightly bullish in the near term, but not compelling for a fresh long-term buy.
["Wells Fargo upgraded IP to Overweight and highlighted favorable risk/reward after the Q1 selloff.", "Seaport Research upgraded IP to Buy and cited improving competitive position and strong containerboard industry capacity take-out.", "Truist pointed to North America box volume strength and expects further growth in Q2.", "The company has been executing self-help initiatives and cost-right-sizing, especially in North America."]
["JPMorgan said Q1 EBITDA was below consensus and Q2 guidance is well below consensus expectations.", "FY26 EBITDA guidance was cut, which signals softer near-term earnings momentum.", "UBS, Citi, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank all lowered price targets recently.", "There is no fresh positive news in the last week to drive the shares higher.", "Congress trading shows 3 recent sale transactions and no purchases, indicating cautious sentiment.", "Options positioning is bearish-to-neutral with a put-heavy open interest profile."]
Latest quarter mentioned is Q1 2026. JPMorgan noted Q1 EBITDA of $677M, which was 3% below consensus and below guidance of $740M. Management also guided Q2 EBITDA to about 25% below consensus at the midpoint and lowered FY26 EBITDA guidance to $3.2B-$3.5B from $3.5B-$3.7B. That indicates recent growth and earnings momentum have weakened, despite some operational improvements and volume gains in North America.
Analyst sentiment is mixed but has turned more cautious on price targets. Recent upgrades from Wells Fargo and Seaport Research were constructive and focused on improving fundamentals and risk/reward, while Truist remained positive. However, UBS, Citi, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank all cut price targets, reflecting weaker earnings expectations. Wall Street is split: the pros include operational self-help, North America strength, and possible upside from restructuring/spinoff themes; the cons are reduced EBITDA guidance, macro pressure, elevated costs, and limited near-term earnings acceleration.
