Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are positive signs such as strong net financial income and growth in core transactional balances, there are concerns about increased loan loss provisions and declining deposits. The Q&A highlights management's cautious optimism about future improvements in ROE and market conditions, but immediate challenges like high NPLs and no dividends in 2026 dampen enthusiasm. The strategic focus on growth and reforms provides a balanced outlook, resulting in a neutral sentiment overall.
Key Financial Performance
Total Loans Grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year. Growth was led by corporates, which expanded 25% quarter-over-quarter and now represents 63% of the portfolio. Retail balances declined sequentially as risk-adjusted returns were prioritized and underwriting was tightened due to a volatile environment.
NPL Ratio Increased to 5% from 3.9% in the prior quarter, reflecting higher delinquency levels amid system-wide credit stress and the seasoning of prior retail growth.
Net Loss Reported an attributable net loss of AR 19.5 billion, narrowing significantly from the third quarter loss. The improvement reflected margin recovery and strict cost control despite elevated cost of risk based on updated macro assumptions and system-wide credit stress.
CET1 Ratio Strengthened to 15.4%, up 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter, preserving flexibility for 2026 growth.
Net Financial Income Reached ARS 246 billion in the quarter, up 82% sequentially and 1% year-over-year. This was driven by a decline in peso cost of funds, bond price recovery, and improved loan portfolio NIM.
Loan Loss Provisions Increased 75% sequentially, reflecting higher system-wide delinquency and updated macroeconomic assumptions within the ECL framework.
Deposits Total deposits declined 6% sequentially due to deliberate balance sheet optimization, particularly in higher-cost wholesale institutional funding. However, core transactional balances increased significantly, with checking accounts up 39% and retail savings accounts rising 29%.
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Operating Highlights
Supervielle app evolution: The app is evolving into a financial hub integrating payments, savings, investments, and services. Over 70% of transactions are digital, enhancing engagement and operational efficiency.
AI-powered WhatsApp interactions: AI-powered WhatsApp interactions and integration with Mercado Libre expand distribution while maintaining a tech and touch model.
EOL platform: EOL operates as a scalable, technology-driven platform focusing on affluent clients, corporations, and IFAs to grow assets under custody and enhance revenue mix.
Loan growth: Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year, driven by corporate lending, which expanded 25% quarter-over-quarter.
Deposit growth: U.S. dollar deposits increased 42% year-over-year, gaining 60 basis points of market share. Core transactional balances also increased significantly.
Cost control: Personnel expenses declined 6% sequentially, and full-year expenses dropped 9% in real terms, confirming structural efficiency gains.
Funding optimization: Deliberate balance sheet optimization led to a 6% sequential decline in total deposits, reducing reliance on higher-cost wholesale funding.
Focus on corporate lending: Positioning to scale corporate lending across dynamic industries' value chains as monetary conditions normalize.
Integration of banking and brokerage: Cross-selling initiatives between the bank and EOL are bringing high-value brokerage clients into the banking platform and offering seamless access to investment products.
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Risk or Challenges
System-wide credit stress: The company faced elevated system-wide credit stress, leading to an increase in the NPL ratio to 5%, reflecting rapid loan growth and restrictive monetary conditions. This stress also resulted in a peak cost of risk and higher loan loss provisions.
Restrictive monetary conditions: High real interest rates and elevated reserve requirements constrained liquidity, negatively impacting margins, credit demand, and asset quality.
Net loss: The company reported a net loss of AR 19.5 billion, driven by elevated cost of risk and system-wide credit stress.
Decline in retail loans: Retail loans declined 4% sequentially due to stricter underwriting standards and deliberate moderation in origination amid elevated rates and higher delinquency.
Deposit optimization challenges: Total deposits declined 6% sequentially as the company reduced wholesale institutional funding to optimize the balance sheet, though core transactional balances remained resilient.
Asset quality deterioration: The NPL ratio increased to 5%, and the cost of risk rose to 10.4%, reflecting higher delinquency levels and macroeconomic challenges.
Economic and policy uncertainties: The company highlighted the importance of policy execution, including maintaining disinflation, normalizing monetary conditions, and FX liberalization, as critical to recovery.
Volatility in funding and margins: High interest rate volatility and elevated reserve requirements created challenges in maintaining stable funding conditions and margins.
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Guidance & Outlook
Economic Recovery and Credit Expansion: Looking into 2026, the foundation for financial recovery is in place. Fiscal discipline continues, FX reserve accumulation supports stability, and disinflation should allow nominal rates to decline. As monetary conditions normalize, economic activity is expected to recover gradually, creating the basis for renewed credit expansion.
Banking System Role: A disciplined and well-organized banking system will play a central role in the recovery. Supervielle is well-positioned to participate in the expansion.
Loan Growth Projections: Real growth in loans is expected to be between 25% and 30%, led by corporate lending as financial intermediation normalizes. Retail credit is expected to progressively regain momentum alongside improvements in economic activity, employment, and disposable income.
Deposit Growth Projections: Deposits are projected to expand between 20% and 25%, supported by stronger client relationships. Peso deposits are expected to lead growth, with additional upside potential for dollar balances due to the recent implementation of the tax amnesty law.
Asset Quality and Risk: The NPL ratio is expected to range between 5% and 6% for the year, with a temporary peak in the first quarter of 2026. Cost of risk is projected between 6% and 6.5%, consistent with normalization.
Net Interest Margin (NIM): NIM is expected to range between 14% and 16%. While interest rate volatility and reserve requirements remain high, improving funding dynamics and disciplined asset pricing should support margins.
Net Fee Income: Net fee income is expected to expand around 5% in real terms, driven by banking and brokerage activity.
Operating Expenses: Structural operating expenses are anticipated to remain broadly stable in real terms, reflecting sustained cost discipline and headcount efficiencies, partially offset by depreciation and higher taxable revenues.
Return on Equity (ROE): Full-year ROE guidance is projected in the range of 4% to 9%, reflecting upside opportunities from macro improvements, relaxation of restrictive monetary policies, stronger credit growth, and efficiency opportunities.
Capital Adequacy: The CET1 ratio is anticipated to end the year between 11% and 13%.
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Shareholder Return Plan
The selected topic was not discussed during the call.
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Key Q&A
Q:How much of the capital buffer is structural versus temporary, and are there plans to change the dividend policy?
A:The core equity Tier 1 ratio rose to about 15% in the quarter, partly due to election recovery and shifts in the investment portfolio. Management expects the ratio to range between 11% and 13% by the end of 2026. The increase was influenced by off-balance sheet losses and deferred tax assets adjustments. Loan growth is projected at 25%-30% in real terms for 2026. No dividends are expected in 2026 due to negative results in 2025, with profits reinvested for 2027.
Q:What could improve market sentiment for the Argentine banking sector?
A:Management highlighted catalysts such as President Milei's ambitious reform agenda, including labor and fiscal reforms, and potential FX liberalization. They also emphasized the importance of accessing international markets to refinance the treasury, lower domestic rates, and reduce liquidity requirements. Improved job markets and institutional reforms are expected to instill confidence in the banking system.
Q:How does the company reconcile loan growth with rising NPLs and provisions?
A:Management observed improved collection trends in December, January, and February, indicating stabilization in the cost of risk. Loan loss provisions peaked in Q4 2025 and are expected to translate into a peak in NPLs in Q1 2026. Actions to contain delinquencies and resume payments are expected to reduce charges in Q1 2026.
Q:Will the company achieve positive ROE in Q1 2026?
A:Management expects sequential improvements in ROE throughout 2026, with double-digit ROE anticipated by the end of the year. Factors include recovery in NIM, cost of risk stabilization, reduced interest rate volatility, and higher-margin retail lending. High teens ROE is targeted by late 2027 or 2028.
Q:Is the balance sheet deleveraging a temporary adjustment or a structural trend?
A:Management described the deleveraging as a tactical move related to wholesale deposits and securities requirements. However, they noted a structural trend of growth in remunerated payroll and SME accounts, which provides a stable funding source.
Q:Will low-cost deposits continue to grow in Q1 2026?
A:Management aims to grow CASA deposits (current and savings accounts) in 2026, despite seasonality in Q4. This focus is expected to improve funding quality.
Q:What drove InvertirOnline's strong performance, and what are the future plans?
A:InvertirOnline's strong performance was driven by a focus on affluent clients, wealth management, and user-friendly platforms. Asset management is growing, with proprietary funds gaining traction. The company plans to expand its high-value customer base and capitalize on Argentina's normalization.
Q:How are spreads evolving, and is the system profitable?
A:Spreads remain stable for both corporate and retail segments, with no contractions observed. Management noted challenges in the system's profitability due to NPLs and provisions but expects improvements with reduced interest rate volatility, disinflation, and increased peso demand.
Q:What is the outlook for the retail credit portfolio and competition from fintechs?
A:Retail portfolio growth is expected to resume gradually in 2026, contingent on improved economic conditions, reduced interest rate volatility, and increased consumer confidence. Management is focusing on primary customers and adjusting credit models. They acknowledge competition from fintechs but view it as healthy.
Q:How would the company respond to potential changes in dollar lending regulations?
A:Management would adopt a cautious approach, focusing on top-tier companies with protections. They emphasized the need for a fiscal anchor and Central Bank independence before expanding dollar lending.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided directly addressing whether the system as a whole is profitable under current conditions, instead focusing on potential improvements from macroeconomic changes. Additionally, they did not provide a clear timeline for further reductions in deposit requirements beyond March 2026.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
AI capability
AR loss
Adoption quality
Argentina broker
Argentina capital
Argentine AR
CEO Diego
CEO Inverted
CET basis
Diego Pizzulli
EOL focus
EOL opportunity
EOL technology
Supervielle app
app hub
asset custody
assumption
basis point
capital market
condition
credit expansion
credit stress
cycle
ecosystem
experience
integration
investment product
margin recovery
payroll SME
peak
platform
purpose
quality stability
reserve requirement
return
saving
system credit
SUPV Transcript
Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive5-8
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate positive sentiment: strong loan growth projections (25-30%), deposit growth (20-25%), and a stable NPL ratio (5-6%). Personnel expenses savings and a strong reserve coverage ratio (100%) are notable positives. Despite some revenue declines, the focus on growing high-value customers and strategic financing in energy and mining sectors is promising. Management's optimism about sovereign risk premium compression and economic stabilization further supports a positive outlook. However, the lack of specific guidance on certain issues and the decline in total deposits are minor concerns.
Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown3-3
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are positive signs such as strong net financial income and growth in core transactional balances, there are concerns about increased loan loss provisions and declining deposits. The Q&A highlights management's cautious optimism about future improvements in ROE and market conditions, but immediate challenges like high NPLs and no dividends in 2026 dampen enthusiasm. The strategic focus on growth and reforms provides a balanced outlook, resulting in a neutral sentiment overall.
Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown11-26
The earnings call highlights several negative factors: rising NPL ratio, significant decline in NIM, net loss, and regulatory uncertainties. The Q&A reveals optimism for future growth but lacks specific details, and management's vague responses on key issues add uncertainty. Despite some positive elements like deposit growth and potential long-term ROE improvement, the immediate financial challenges and lack of clear guidance suggest a negative short-term market reaction.
Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown8-19
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong loan growth and NIM expansion are positive, but increased loan loss provisions and a rising NPL ratio are concerning. The Q&A section reveals uncertainties around NPL trends and cost of risk, with management providing vague responses on key issues. Although some strategic initiatives are promising, the revised growth guidance and macroeconomic challenges temper optimism. Overall, the sentiment remains neutral as positive elements are balanced by risks and uncertainties.
SUPV Slides
SUPV Report
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