Analysis of Trading Volume in Prediction Markets
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Surge in Trading Volume: Since the 2024 election, Polymarket has seen a notable increase in trading volume; however, 70% of closed markets reported volumes under $10,000, indicating a lack of market depth that could impact trader decisions.
- Risks of Low Volume: Low-volume markets exhibit high volatility, which can lead to increased trading costs for new traders due to wider spreads, diminishing the market's appeal, a trend also observed on competing platforms like Kalshi.
- Bots Dominate Markets: Over 80% of the volume in Polymarket's markets under $10,000 comes from bots, which profit in low-volume markets without distorting prices, highlighting the complexity of market dynamics.
- Accuracy Controversy: While high-volume markets are deemed more reliable, some studies suggest that market accuracy is more influenced by the skill of traders rather than volume, advising caution for traders engaging in low-volume markets.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy EVR?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on EVR
Wall Street analysts forecast EVR stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 355.480
Low
342.36
Averages
389.87
High
425.00
Current: 355.480
Low
342.36
Averages
389.87
High
425.00
About EVR
Evercore Inc. is an investment banking and investment management company. The Company's segments include Investment Banking & Equities and Investment Management. Investment Banking & Equities includes the investment banking business through which it provides advice to clients on significant mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, shareholder activism, and other strategic corporate transactions, with a particular focus on advising multinational corporations and private equity firms on large, complex transactions. It also provides liability management and restructuring advice to companies in financial transition, as well as to creditors, shareholders, and potential acquirers. Investment Management includes the wealth management business, through which it provides investment advisory, wealth management and fiduciary services for high-net-worth individuals and associated entities, and the private equity business, which holds interests in private equity funds not managed by the Company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Sabey Data Centers Secures Minority Investment from Ares Management
- Investment Expansion: Ares Secondaries' minority equity investment in Sabey Data Center Properties signifies strong endorsement of the platform, expected to provide capital for future expansion and support the growth strategies of both Sabey and National.
- Operational Capacity Enhancement: Sabey Data Center Properties currently operates with approximately 251 megawatts of capacity, with the potential to triple that output by 2036 on existing land, addressing the increasing demands driven by cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
- Strong Market Demand: This investment reflects robust demand for scaled data center infrastructure, particularly fueled by enterprise workloads and cloud computing, further solidifying SDCP's leading position in the market.
- Strategic Collaboration: The partnership between Sabey, National, and Ares will enhance their competitiveness in the data center sector, with the synergy among the three parties driving SDCP's growth plans to meet customer needs for mission-critical infrastructure.
See More
Analysis of Trading Volume in Prediction Markets
- Surge in Trading Volume: Since the 2024 election, Polymarket has seen a notable increase in trading volume; however, 70% of closed markets reported volumes under $10,000, indicating a lack of market depth that could impact trader decisions.
- Risks of Low Volume: Low-volume markets exhibit high volatility, which can lead to increased trading costs for new traders due to wider spreads, diminishing the market's appeal, a trend also observed on competing platforms like Kalshi.
- Bots Dominate Markets: Over 80% of the volume in Polymarket's markets under $10,000 comes from bots, which profit in low-volume markets without distorting prices, highlighting the complexity of market dynamics.
- Accuracy Controversy: While high-volume markets are deemed more reliable, some studies suggest that market accuracy is more influenced by the skill of traders rather than volume, advising caution for traders engaging in low-volume markets.
See More
S&P 500 Rises 9% Year-to-Date Amid Economic Headwinds
- Strong Earnings Drive: In Q1, S&P 500 companies reported a 12% revenue growth, the highest since 2022, and a 29% earnings growth, the best since 2021, indicating a robust recovery in corporate profitability that boosts market confidence.
- Sector Leaders: The technology and communication services sectors achieved earnings growth of 55% and 49%, respectively, primarily driven by the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out, highlighting the significant impact of AI investments on market dynamics and future growth potential.
- Optimistic Market Expectations: Wall Street analysts anticipate continued strong performance from S&P 500 companies in the remaining quarters of 2026, with full-year revenue expected to rise by 11% and earnings by 23%, further propelling stock market gains and reflecting investor optimism about future prospects.
- Risks and Opportunities: Despite the optimistic outlook, investors should remain cautious of potential risks, including strained U.S.-Iran relations and high inflation, alongside Trump's plans to impose new tariffs this summer, suggesting a focus on reasonably valued stocks may be prudent.
See More
S&P 500 Returns 9% Year-to-Date Amid Economic Uncertainty
- Strong Earnings Drive: S&P 500 companies reported a 12% revenue growth in Q1, the highest since 2022, alongside a 29% earnings growth, demonstrating robust economic resilience despite high inflation and geopolitical risks.
- AI Investment Leadership: The technology and communication services sectors achieved earnings growth of 55% and 49%, respectively, indicating that investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure are driving market performance and becoming a key growth driver for the future.
- Upward Revision of Targets: The median year-end target among 19 Wall Street analysts is 7,850, up from 7,600 earlier this year, implying a 5% upside from the current level, with an expected full-year return of 15%.
- Market Risk Warnings: Despite strong market performance, investors should be cautious of the risks posed by strained U.S.-Iran relations and inflation exceeding the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting a focus on reasonably valued stocks rather than chasing expensive IPOs.
See More
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Chairman Signals Hawkish Shift
- Rate Policy Steady: The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate between 3.5%-3.75%, despite internal divisions within the committee regarding future rate hikes, indicating market uncertainty about upcoming policies.
- Hawkish Signals Clear: Chairman Warsh emphasized 'price stability' multiple times during the meeting, showcasing the committee's strong commitment to controlling inflation, which led to a 14.4 basis point rise in the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield, reflecting market reactions to his hawkish stance.
- Task Force Formation: Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces focused on studying the Fed's communication, balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, the impact of AI, and inflation strategies, highlighting his intent for reform.
- Communication Simplified: Warsh promised to enhance the Fed's communication, with the first post-meeting statement reduced to just 130 words, a significant cut from the previous 300-word statements, aimed at minimizing market misinterpretations of policy.
See More
Successful Virtual Investor Conference Held
- Rich Conference Content: The Energy & Precious Metals Virtual Investor Summit held on June 16, 2026, brought together executives from leading companies to showcase their corporate strategies and operational updates, enhancing investor engagement.
- Investor Interaction Opportunities: Participating companies engaged directly with investors through live Q&A sessions and one-on-one meetings, with management meeting requests accepted post-event, further fostering investor relations.
- On-Demand Viewing: Presentations from the summit will be available for on-demand viewing 24/7 for 90 days, allowing investors and analysts to download relevant materials at their convenience, improving information accessibility.
- Advantages of Virtual Conferences: Virtual Investor Conferences provide an efficient platform for investor access, replicating all aspects of on-site meetings, which helps companies connect better with global investors and enhances the efficiency of investor communications.
See More
Sabey Data Centers Secures Minority Investment from Ares Management
- Investment Expansion: Ares Secondaries' minority equity investment in Sabey Data Center Properties signifies strong endorsement of the platform, expected to provide capital for future expansion and support the growth strategies of both Sabey and National.
- Operational Capacity Enhancement: Sabey Data Center Properties currently operates with approximately 251 megawatts of capacity, with the potential to triple that output by 2036 on existing land, addressing the increasing demands driven by cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
- Strong Market Demand: This investment reflects robust demand for scaled data center infrastructure, particularly fueled by enterprise workloads and cloud computing, further solidifying SDCP's leading position in the market.
- Strategic Collaboration: The partnership between Sabey, National, and Ares will enhance their competitiveness in the data center sector, with the synergy among the three parties driving SDCP's growth plans to meet customer needs for mission-critical infrastructure.
See More
Analysis of Trading Volume in Prediction Markets
- Surge in Trading Volume: Since the 2024 election, Polymarket has seen a notable increase in trading volume; however, 70% of closed markets reported volumes under $10,000, indicating a lack of market depth that could impact trader decisions.
- Risks of Low Volume: Low-volume markets exhibit high volatility, which can lead to increased trading costs for new traders due to wider spreads, diminishing the market's appeal, a trend also observed on competing platforms like Kalshi.
- Bots Dominate Markets: Over 80% of the volume in Polymarket's markets under $10,000 comes from bots, which profit in low-volume markets without distorting prices, highlighting the complexity of market dynamics.
- Accuracy Controversy: While high-volume markets are deemed more reliable, some studies suggest that market accuracy is more influenced by the skill of traders rather than volume, advising caution for traders engaging in low-volume markets.
See More
S&P 500 Rises 9% Year-to-Date Amid Economic Headwinds
- Strong Earnings Drive: In Q1, S&P 500 companies reported a 12% revenue growth, the highest since 2022, and a 29% earnings growth, the best since 2021, indicating a robust recovery in corporate profitability that boosts market confidence.
- Sector Leaders: The technology and communication services sectors achieved earnings growth of 55% and 49%, respectively, primarily driven by the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out, highlighting the significant impact of AI investments on market dynamics and future growth potential.
- Optimistic Market Expectations: Wall Street analysts anticipate continued strong performance from S&P 500 companies in the remaining quarters of 2026, with full-year revenue expected to rise by 11% and earnings by 23%, further propelling stock market gains and reflecting investor optimism about future prospects.
- Risks and Opportunities: Despite the optimistic outlook, investors should remain cautious of potential risks, including strained U.S.-Iran relations and high inflation, alongside Trump's plans to impose new tariffs this summer, suggesting a focus on reasonably valued stocks may be prudent.
See More
S&P 500 Returns 9% Year-to-Date Amid Economic Uncertainty
- Strong Earnings Drive: S&P 500 companies reported a 12% revenue growth in Q1, the highest since 2022, alongside a 29% earnings growth, demonstrating robust economic resilience despite high inflation and geopolitical risks.
- AI Investment Leadership: The technology and communication services sectors achieved earnings growth of 55% and 49%, respectively, indicating that investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure are driving market performance and becoming a key growth driver for the future.
- Upward Revision of Targets: The median year-end target among 19 Wall Street analysts is 7,850, up from 7,600 earlier this year, implying a 5% upside from the current level, with an expected full-year return of 15%.
- Market Risk Warnings: Despite strong market performance, investors should be cautious of the risks posed by strained U.S.-Iran relations and inflation exceeding the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting a focus on reasonably valued stocks rather than chasing expensive IPOs.
See More
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Chairman Signals Hawkish Shift
- Rate Policy Steady: The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate between 3.5%-3.75%, despite internal divisions within the committee regarding future rate hikes, indicating market uncertainty about upcoming policies.
- Hawkish Signals Clear: Chairman Warsh emphasized 'price stability' multiple times during the meeting, showcasing the committee's strong commitment to controlling inflation, which led to a 14.4 basis point rise in the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield, reflecting market reactions to his hawkish stance.
- Task Force Formation: Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces focused on studying the Fed's communication, balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, the impact of AI, and inflation strategies, highlighting his intent for reform.
- Communication Simplified: Warsh promised to enhance the Fed's communication, with the first post-meeting statement reduced to just 130 words, a significant cut from the previous 300-word statements, aimed at minimizing market misinterpretations of policy.
See More
Successful Virtual Investor Conference Held
- Rich Conference Content: The Energy & Precious Metals Virtual Investor Summit held on June 16, 2026, brought together executives from leading companies to showcase their corporate strategies and operational updates, enhancing investor engagement.
- Investor Interaction Opportunities: Participating companies engaged directly with investors through live Q&A sessions and one-on-one meetings, with management meeting requests accepted post-event, further fostering investor relations.
- On-Demand Viewing: Presentations from the summit will be available for on-demand viewing 24/7 for 90 days, allowing investors and analysts to download relevant materials at their convenience, improving information accessibility.
- Advantages of Virtual Conferences: Virtual Investor Conferences provide an efficient platform for investor access, replicating all aspects of on-site meetings, which helps companies connect better with global investors and enhances the efficiency of investor communications.
See More
