Oil Prices Rise Above $100, Markets Cautious
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 11 2026
0mins
Futures are modestly lower this morning as oil pushes back above $100 following another deterioration in U.S.-Iran negotiations and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are starting the week in a more cautious posture after six straight weeks of gains, with investors trying to reconcile resilient economic data, rising geopolitical risk and an AI trade that refuses to cool off. The market spent much of last week assuming de-escalation was possible; this morning's tone reflects growing concern that the conflict could become more prolonged and structurally inflationary than investors had been pricing. Higher crude is now feeding directly into the Fed outlook. Both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America pushed out their expected timing for Fed rate cuts after last week's stronger-than-expected jobs data and renewed inflation concerns tied to energy prices.Corporate results remain exceptionally strong, particularly in semiconductors, hyperscalers and AI infrastructure. Investors increasingly believe the AI buildout is creating a genuine multi-year earnings cycle rather than just a speculative thematic bubble. A small cluster of mega-cap tech and semiconductor names is doing an outsized amount of the work, while large portions of the market are lagging.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures fell 0.11%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.15% and Dow futures fell 0.05%.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -Modernaup 8% after a U.S. citizen tested positive for the Andes strain of hantavirusUP AFTER EARNINGS -Monday.comup 25%Circle Internetup 6%Kodiak Gas Servicesup 6%Townsquare Mediaup 6%Fox Corp.up 3%Seadrillup 3%Barrick Miningup 3%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Certaradown 7%Mosaicdown 6%Doledown 1%
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Analyst Views on MRNA
Wall Street analysts forecast MRNA stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
16 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 79.760
Low
17.00
Averages
32.47
High
63.00
Current: 79.760
Low
17.00
Averages
32.47
High
63.00
About MRNA
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company advancing a new class of medicines made of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). It is engaged in developing medicines across infectious disease vaccines, oncology therapeutics and rare disease therapeutics. Its platform incorporates advances across three components, mRNA, delivery, and the manufacturing process, to advance its medicines. Its products are Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (its COVID vaccines), and mRESVIA (its vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)). It also has a diverse development pipeline that consists of 35 therapeutic and vaccine programs, six of which are in late-stage development. It has regulatory filings under review for its seasonal flu+COVID vaccine (mRNA-1083) in Europe and Canada and for its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia. Its rare disease programs are Propionic acidemia (mRNA-3927); Methylmalonic acidemia (mRNA-3705), and Cystic Fibrosis (mRNA-3692/VX-522).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Moderna Shares Rise 2.51% Ahead of Earnings Report
- Stock Performance: Moderna closed at $81.76, marking a 2.51% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.72%, indicating strong market confidence in its future performance.
- Annual Earnings Outlook: Analysts expect Moderna to report a loss of $2 per share in its upcoming earnings report, yet this reflects a year-over-year growth of 6.1%, showcasing the company's resilience amid challenges.
- Revenue Forecast: The Zacks consensus estimates revenue of $114.89 million for the quarter, down 19.09% year-over-year, indicating concerns about product demand; however, annual revenue is projected to grow by 6.64% to $2.07 billion.
- Analyst Ratings: Currently, Moderna holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), and while the EPS projections have remained stagnant over the past 30 days, the analysts' optimism regarding short-term business trends may influence stock price performance.
See More
Moderna's Optimistic Vaccine Pipeline Sparks Investor Interest
- Product Diversification: Moderna currently has three commercial products and is developing personalized cancer vaccines and therapies for rare genetic disorders, indicating its business scope has expanded beyond COVID-19 vaccines, with potential for multiple revenue streams in the future.
- Improving Financials: In Q1 2026, Moderna generated $389 million in revenue, a significant increase from $108 million a year earlier, and while still posting a net loss, the company has approximately $7.5 billion in cash and investments to support its research pipeline.
- Vaccine Approval Progress: An FDA advisory committee voted 9-0 to recommend approval for Moderna's seasonal flu vaccine, with a final decision expected in August, which could serve as a major near-term catalyst for stock price appreciation.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Management targets up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 and aims for cash breakeven by 2028; if several late-stage programs reach the market, Moderna could evolve into a more diversified biotechnology company, significantly enhancing its long-term investment appeal.
See More
Biotech Stocks Outperform S&P 500 in H1 2026
- Moderna's Recovery Potential: Moderna forecasts a revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026 and is awaiting regulatory approval for a new flu vaccine on August 5; despite expectations of a 40% price decline over the next 12 months, the launch of new products presents significant growth opportunities for the company.
- Breakthrough Cancer Drug: Revolution Medicines reported unprecedented survival rates for its cancer drug Daraxonrasib in phase 3 trials and plans to submit for regulatory review; while Wall Street anticipates only a 2% price increase in the coming months, the drug's potential market impact is substantial.
- Axsome's Growth Drivers: Axsome Therapeutics is expected to see a 13% price increase over the next year, driven by the approval of its drugs Auvelity and Symbravo, with ongoing phase 3 trials across five treatment areas that could lead to explosive earnings growth if successful.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite overall market pressures from turmoil in Iran and rising oil prices, biotech stocks have thrived as investors shift towards new opportunities, reflecting strong demand and confidence in innovative therapies.
See More
Biotech Companies Reach Critical Turning Point
- Moderna's Recovery Outlook: Moderna anticipates a revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026 and is awaiting potential approval for a flu vaccine on August 5, which could provide new growth momentum, although the market expects a 40% pullback in stock price over the next 12 months.
- Revolution Medicines Breakthrough: Revolution Medicines reported significant results in phase 3 trials for its cancer drug, daraxonrasib, showing a median survival of 13.2 months in previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer, far exceeding chemotherapy's 6.7 months, with plans to submit for regulatory review, indicating substantial future growth potential.
- Axsome's Growth Potential: Axsome Therapeutics is expected to see a 13% stock price increase over the next 12 months, driven by its drugs Auvelity and Symbravo targeting agitation associated with Alzheimer's and migraines, respectively, while ongoing phase 3 trials could lead to explosive earnings growth if successful.
- Market Dynamics Analysis: Despite the S&P 500's over 9% gain in the first half of 2026, biotech companies like Moderna, Revolution Medicines, and Axsome outperformed, reflecting investor interest in emerging opportunities, which may shift market funds towards these high-potential stocks.
See More
Analysis of RSP ETF's 52-Week Price Fluctuations
- Price Range Analysis: RSP ETF's 52-week low is $179.9448 per share and high is $215.61, with the latest trade at $214.33, indicating stability near the high point which may attract investor interest.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, aiding in market trend assessment and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Unit Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs with notable inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets.
See More
Moderna Stock Surges 10% to Yearly High Amid FDA Vote
- FDA Vote Impact: Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine received a 9-0 vote of support from the FDA advisory panel, with a final approval expected by August 5, propelling the stock price up over 70% in a month to a yearly high of $79.76.
- Market Expectation Discrepancy: Despite the significant stock surge, the average analyst price target remains around $45, indicating a stark contrast between market sentiment and analyst forecasts regarding the company's growth potential, particularly concerning the flu vaccine's market viability.
- Diversification Strategy: At its Science Day in late June, Moderna outlined three commercial franchises, including infectious disease vaccines, personalized cancer therapies, and rare disease treatments, signaling a strategic shift to reduce reliance on COVID vaccines, although flu vaccine sales are not expected to contribute significantly in the near term.
- Strong Financial Position: As of the first quarter, Moderna reported $7.5 billion in cash and investments, providing ample funding for its pipeline development even as sales remain below pandemic peaks, thus offering the company time to validate its new product offerings in the market.
See More
Moderna Shares Rise 2.51% Ahead of Earnings Report
- Stock Performance: Moderna closed at $81.76, marking a 2.51% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.72%, indicating strong market confidence in its future performance.
- Annual Earnings Outlook: Analysts expect Moderna to report a loss of $2 per share in its upcoming earnings report, yet this reflects a year-over-year growth of 6.1%, showcasing the company's resilience amid challenges.
- Revenue Forecast: The Zacks consensus estimates revenue of $114.89 million for the quarter, down 19.09% year-over-year, indicating concerns about product demand; however, annual revenue is projected to grow by 6.64% to $2.07 billion.
- Analyst Ratings: Currently, Moderna holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), and while the EPS projections have remained stagnant over the past 30 days, the analysts' optimism regarding short-term business trends may influence stock price performance.
See More
Moderna's Optimistic Vaccine Pipeline Sparks Investor Interest
- Product Diversification: Moderna currently has three commercial products and is developing personalized cancer vaccines and therapies for rare genetic disorders, indicating its business scope has expanded beyond COVID-19 vaccines, with potential for multiple revenue streams in the future.
- Improving Financials: In Q1 2026, Moderna generated $389 million in revenue, a significant increase from $108 million a year earlier, and while still posting a net loss, the company has approximately $7.5 billion in cash and investments to support its research pipeline.
- Vaccine Approval Progress: An FDA advisory committee voted 9-0 to recommend approval for Moderna's seasonal flu vaccine, with a final decision expected in August, which could serve as a major near-term catalyst for stock price appreciation.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Management targets up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 and aims for cash breakeven by 2028; if several late-stage programs reach the market, Moderna could evolve into a more diversified biotechnology company, significantly enhancing its long-term investment appeal.
See More
Biotech Stocks Outperform S&P 500 in H1 2026
- Moderna's Recovery Potential: Moderna forecasts a revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026 and is awaiting regulatory approval for a new flu vaccine on August 5; despite expectations of a 40% price decline over the next 12 months, the launch of new products presents significant growth opportunities for the company.
- Breakthrough Cancer Drug: Revolution Medicines reported unprecedented survival rates for its cancer drug Daraxonrasib in phase 3 trials and plans to submit for regulatory review; while Wall Street anticipates only a 2% price increase in the coming months, the drug's potential market impact is substantial.
- Axsome's Growth Drivers: Axsome Therapeutics is expected to see a 13% price increase over the next year, driven by the approval of its drugs Auvelity and Symbravo, with ongoing phase 3 trials across five treatment areas that could lead to explosive earnings growth if successful.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite overall market pressures from turmoil in Iran and rising oil prices, biotech stocks have thrived as investors shift towards new opportunities, reflecting strong demand and confidence in innovative therapies.
See More
Biotech Companies Reach Critical Turning Point
- Moderna's Recovery Outlook: Moderna anticipates a revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026 and is awaiting potential approval for a flu vaccine on August 5, which could provide new growth momentum, although the market expects a 40% pullback in stock price over the next 12 months.
- Revolution Medicines Breakthrough: Revolution Medicines reported significant results in phase 3 trials for its cancer drug, daraxonrasib, showing a median survival of 13.2 months in previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer, far exceeding chemotherapy's 6.7 months, with plans to submit for regulatory review, indicating substantial future growth potential.
- Axsome's Growth Potential: Axsome Therapeutics is expected to see a 13% stock price increase over the next 12 months, driven by its drugs Auvelity and Symbravo targeting agitation associated with Alzheimer's and migraines, respectively, while ongoing phase 3 trials could lead to explosive earnings growth if successful.
- Market Dynamics Analysis: Despite the S&P 500's over 9% gain in the first half of 2026, biotech companies like Moderna, Revolution Medicines, and Axsome outperformed, reflecting investor interest in emerging opportunities, which may shift market funds towards these high-potential stocks.
See More
Analysis of RSP ETF's 52-Week Price Fluctuations
- Price Range Analysis: RSP ETF's 52-week low is $179.9448 per share and high is $215.61, with the latest trade at $214.33, indicating stability near the high point which may attract investor interest.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, aiding in market trend assessment and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Unit Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs with notable inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets.
See More
Moderna Stock Surges 10% to Yearly High Amid FDA Vote
- FDA Vote Impact: Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine received a 9-0 vote of support from the FDA advisory panel, with a final approval expected by August 5, propelling the stock price up over 70% in a month to a yearly high of $79.76.
- Market Expectation Discrepancy: Despite the significant stock surge, the average analyst price target remains around $45, indicating a stark contrast between market sentiment and analyst forecasts regarding the company's growth potential, particularly concerning the flu vaccine's market viability.
- Diversification Strategy: At its Science Day in late June, Moderna outlined three commercial franchises, including infectious disease vaccines, personalized cancer therapies, and rare disease treatments, signaling a strategic shift to reduce reliance on COVID vaccines, although flu vaccine sales are not expected to contribute significantly in the near term.
- Strong Financial Position: As of the first quarter, Moderna reported $7.5 billion in cash and investments, providing ample funding for its pipeline development even as sales remain below pandemic peaks, thus offering the company time to validate its new product offerings in the market.
See More
